Romney closing on Obama in… Michigan??

October 18, 2012

Signs of an electoral apocalypse?

A new statewide poll shows a tight race between President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney, as well as growing enthusiasm among Republicans for their nominee.

Released Wednesday, the poll of 600 likely voters showed Obama leading Romney in Michigan, 44.2 percent to 40.5 percent, but Romney also within the sampling error of 4 percentage points — meaning it’s a tight race.

The poll was conducted by the Michigan polling firm Denno Research and commissioned by Grand Rapids-based Lambert, Edwards & Associates, which also has offices in Lansing. Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research, also is chief of staff to state Sen. Virgil Smith Jr., D-Detroit.

Note that last: this is a Democratic poll. Maybe the partial nationalization of the auto industry isn’t as popular as assumed?

Also:

In addition, the poll found that Romney had a 6 percent lead over Obama with independent voters — 36 percent to 30 percent — strengthening Romney’s chances of closing the gap.

This is crucial: Obama may or may not have “fired up” his core Democratic supporters after the last debate, but it’s the unaligned who provided him with much of his margin of victory in 2008. If Romney, who’s already enjoying growing Republican enthusiasm according to the poll, is stealing the independents, then we may find Team Obama having to spend its scarcest resource, campaign time, not as much as they’d like in genuine battleground states, but in states that should be safe for them, such as Minnesota.

Looks to me like they’re the ones playing defense, falling back to their second line of fortifications while denying rumors that they’re abandoning their outer works in North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Romney still isn’t likely to win Minnesota or Michigan (though I predict a red Pennsylvania), but that more and more polls in Blue states are narrowing has to worry them with the election so near; that they spend any time or money in those places at all is a visible sign of this.

Or consider it another way: when was the last time Romney-Ryan campaigned in Texas?

Maybe an electoral strategy based on Big Bird, binders, and Tagg Romney’s violent urges doesn’t resonate with the American public?

What. A. Shock.

via Hot Air

UPDATE: Beware of irrational exuberance, but Gallup has Romney up 52-45 in likely voters. Analyst Sean Trende is reasonably skeptical. But it sure is pretty.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)


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