If Assad falls, will Iran try to govern Syria directly?

That’s the speculation of a retired Israeli general, on what would amount to annexation:

• In mid-April, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah paid a secret visit to Tehran where he met with the top Iranian officials headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Gen. Qasem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Suleimani prepared an operational plan named after him based upon the establishment of a 150,000-man force for Syria, the majority of whom will come from Iran, Iraq, and a smaller number from Hizbullah and the Gulf states.

• Suleimani’s involvement was significant. He has been the spearhead of Iranian military activism in the Middle East. In January 2012, he declared that the Islamic Republic controlled “one way or another” Iraq and South Lebanon. Even before recent events in Syria, observers in the Arab world have been warning for years about growing evidence of “Iranian expansionism.”

• An important expression of Syria’s centrality in Iranian strategy was voiced by Mehdi Taaib, who heads Khamenei’s think tank. He recently stated that “Syria is the 35^th district of Iran and it has greater strategic importance for Iran than Khuzestan [an Arab-populated district inside Iran].” Significantly, Taaib was drawing a comparison between Syria and a district that is under full Iranian sovereignty.

• Tehran has had political ambitions with respect to Syria for years and has indeed invested huge resources in making Syria a Shiite state. The Syrian regime let Iranian missionaries work freely to strengthen the Shiite faith in Damascus and the cities of the Alawite coast, as well as the smaller towns and villages. In both urban and rural parts of Syria, Sunnis and others who adopted the Shiite faith received privileges and preferential treatment in the disbursement of Iranian aid money.

• Iran is also recruiting Shiite forces in Iraq for the warfare in Syria. These are organized in a sister framework of Lebanese Hizbullah. Known as the League of the Righteous People and Kateeb Hizbullah, its mission is to defend the Shiite centers in Damascus. It is likely that Tehran will make every effort to recruit additional Shiite elements from Iraq, the Persian Gulf, and even from Pakistan.

Click through for much more.

I’ve said before that Syria is Iran’s lynchpin on the Western side of the Fertile Crescent, without which the position of its proxy army in Lebanon, Hizbullah, becomes almost untenable, and one of the arguments for Western intervention in Syria has been that it would gravely weaken Iran’s influence in the region. So, it’s at least plausible.

But, would they? It would truly be a desperate act, greatly increasing the danger in the area. It’s hard to imagine Israel tolerating what in essence would be a Persian satrapy on its border, when said “Persian Empire” has promised to rain nuclear fire on Israel.

And could they? The effort to control Syria, even with remnants of the Syrian Army and Hizbullah to help, would be a tremendous drain on Iranian resources of manpower and wealth, and it would certainly mean ratcheting up the pressure on Iraq, passage through whose territory Iran would need to resupply its forces. I have trouble believing they could maintain such a long-distance operation.

I’ve no idea how reliable General Shapira’s analysis is, but dictatorships have done crazier things in the past.

via Jews for Sarah and Michael Ledeen, who has a good article on the larger war.

I weep: Syrian rebels attack Hizbullah camps

Okay, maybe not so much weeping as wishing for popcorn.

Syrian rebels have reportedly bombed two compounds operated by the Lebanese terror organization Hezbollah, the main Syrian opposition group announced Thursday.

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) claims its forces bombed Hezbollah facilities in Lebanon and Syria, a cross-border raid that indicates the rebels’ desire to increase their attacks on allies of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

“The development may mark a critical turn in Syria’s two-year war, bearing out fears that the increasingly sectarian conflict would spill over across Syria’s borders,” according to the Israel Project (TIP), which first reported on the operation.

Love it! Hot jihadi on jihadi action.

In case you’re wondering why the FSA should attack Hizbullah, who are based in Lebanon, keep in mind that the rebellion against Boy Assad (1) and his murderous clan largely comprises groups belonging to the Sunni side of Islam, while the Assads and their key supporters in Syria are mostly Alawite Muslim, an offshoot of Shia Islam (bad enough in Sunni eyes) that is regarded as borderline heretical by orthodox Muslims. In the decades since the Assads seized power, the Alawis have held the real reins of power in Syria and have not been shy about using overwhelming force to keep them, adding to the religious dislike.

Hizbullah is also a Shiite organization, a creation of Shiite Iran, which is the Assad regime’s major patron. (An important Iranian general was reported killed recently in Syria, probably by rebels.) Syria is crucial to Iran’s struggle against Israel and to be a dominant player in the western Fertile Crescent, allowing Iran to  funnel weapons and money to Hizbullah, its frequent proxy against Israel. (If Israel ever attacks Iran, expect Hizbullah to try to rain hell on northern Israel.) Iran needs a friendly regime in Damascus, or its influence in the area will be severely curtailed. Hence it has sent troops, including snipers, to Syria to support the Assads.

Hizbullah itself realizes the fall of the Assads would weaken its position, perhaps fatally. It is the dominant player in the Lebanese government and functions as a state within the hollow husk of the Lebanese state. It has been heavily armed by Iran via Syria for its jihad against Israel, and Syria has provided a convenient fall-back zone on the occasions the Israelis have struck back.

But all this is in danger if Assad loses: the safe haven will be gone in a fragmented or dominated-by-Sunnis Syria; there will be no easy route for Iranian weapons to reach them, and they will have enemies to their south (Israel) and east, not just the south. The prospect is scary enough that Hizbullah is willing to do damage to its reputation for fighting for the average Muslim by sending forces to aid Assad against the rebels.

Thus you can see why the Sunni rebels in Syria would have no love for Hizbullah: they are Shiites; allies of the hated regime; and tools of the Iranians who prop up Assad and kill Syrians… A conflict was almost inevitable.

But this doesn’t mean the “enemy of our enemy” is also our friend. The FSA is tightly allied with (and perhaps dominated by) the al-Nusrah front, an al-Qaeda aligned organization, many of whose members got their experience fighting us in Iraq. In other words, they are not our BFFs. Whatever “liberal” possibly pro-Western elements there may be in the anti-Assad alliance are, in my estimation, small and weak.

So, what should America do? This may get my “neocon card” revoked, but I don’t think there is much that can be done, particularly after the dithering of the Obama administration over the last couple of years. It’s in our interest to see Iran’s influence in the area damaged and Hizbullah weakened, if only because that would improve the security of our client and ally, Israel. So, the fall of the Assads would be a good thing.

But, not wholly so, if replaced by a Sunni jihadist regime that sees its duty as fighting the Jews, too. And no one sane wants any group affiliated with al Qaeda to have any safe haven. Granted the situation is hell for those trapped in Syria, perhaps the best from an American and Israeli point of view is a continuing war that drains all sides, while trying to cultivate whatever real moderates there are to be ready to exercise influence when the dust settles, and in the meantime doing what we can to make sure the fighting doesn’t spill over into Israel.

Beyond that… Enjoy watching one group of bad guys go after another, and pass the popcorn.

Footnote:
(1) Let us not forget that, just a few years ago, powerful Democrats, including our current Secretary of State, and their media allies were all Assad’s useful idiots, praising him as a reformer. That’s the Hundred Acre Wood style of diplomacy, for you.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

Israel blasts Syrian convoy in Lebanon: was it carrying chemical weapons?

If PJM’s Barry Rubin is right, it’s the development many have feared: a desperate, vengeful Bashar Assad giving WMDs to the genocidal jihadists of Hizbullah:

It has been reported that a number of Israeli planes flew over Lebanon and attacked a convoy near the Syrian-Lebanese border. The fact that this comes shortly after Hizballah and Syrian forces had moved in growing numbers toward known chemical-weapons storage areas implies that the Syrian regime was in the act of shipping chemical weapons to the Lebanese Shia Islamist group (which also happens to dominate the Lebanese government and to be involved in a lot of anti-Israel terrorism) Hizballah. This story has not yet been confirmed by Israel.

During the 2006 Israel-Hizballah war, Israel frequently hit convoys delivering weapons to Lebanon the moment they crossed the Syria-Lebanon border, showing a very strong intelligence capacity on such events.

The Israeli position has been that it will not allow any transfer of advanced weapons by the Syrian regime to either Hizballah or radical Lebanese Sunni groups. Israel had previously made this point clear through public statements to the Syrian government. It has not been explicitly reported whether the weapons on the convoy were chemical ones.

While Israel isn’t commenting officially, a retired general gave what may be an oblique confirmation:

But Brigadier General Amnon Sofrin, a retired army intelligence officer and former head of intelligence for the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, gave a press conference in which he made the following points.

 ”I think that if we have solid evidence shared by our own partners all over the world, that chemical warheads are being transferred from Syria to Lebanon, to Hezbollah, I think that no one will condemn Israel for trying to prevent it.”

This should be read as explaining that Israel notified the United States and others of its intelligence information prior to the attack.

Given relations between the Obama administration and the Israeli government, you can bet Jerusalem was not asking for permission, either.

Rubin speculates that these may also have been Russian surface-to-air missiles, meant to shoot down Israeli recon drones so they couldn’t spot later transfers of chemical weapons.  Regardless, this is ominous news. The common wisdom has been that the Assad regime is either doomed or will soon be reduced to a small rump state in the mountains. The question, then, is what becomes of the chemical weapons they’re known to have? (Including those that may have been smuggled from Saddam’s Iraq as it fell?)

The danger is not just that these would be given to Hizbullah in some last act of revenge, though that would be a potential nightmare for Israel. There is also the grave risk that these weapons could fall into the hands of al Qaeda-aligned Syrian rebels, who might then pass them along al Qaeda Central.

And you just know whom Zawahiri would love to unleash these on, if he could get his mitts on them.

This is a good moment to remember that we are still at war, that there are still very determined people on a religious mission to see us dead or subjugated.  They take this very seriously, and so should we.

And I hope, behind the empty brags of having al Qaeda “on the run,” so does President Obama.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

How the U.S. Could Take Out Syria’s Chemical Weapons

This is a job for SCIENCE!!!

Three words: “molten, metallic foam.”

We really do have all the best toys!

Obama administration arms Syrian Muslim Brotherhood?

Seal of the Muslim Brotherhood.

I recommend reading all of Barry Rubin’s article on the factions in Syria, information that’s becoming more relevant as the civil war there seems to be entering its endgame as the battle for Damascus begins.

It’s this last part that jumps out at me, though:

–The Libyan government gave 50 percent of the funds to finance the budget of the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Syrian National Council (SNC) budget. Since Libya is very much a U.S. client, it’s reasonable to conclude that the Obama Administration encouraged this generosity. Yet this money was financing a Muslim Brotherhood front. A lot of arms have been flowing from Libya to Hamas and other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip and to radical forces in Syria. Some claim that the U.S. government was coordinating that traffic though this has not yet been proven. But at least indirectly the U.S. government was helping to arm the Brotherhood by overseeing Qatar and Turkey delivering weapons to the Brotherhood’s militia without making any attempt to identify and arm moderate and non-Islamist forces instead.

This means the Obama Administration was using a barely disguised channel to pay for a revolutionary Islamist movement seeking to take over Syria. The fact that this group was also anti-American, antisemitic, and genocidal toward Jews seems significant.

The rest of the SNC budget came from Qatar (38 percent) and Saudi Arabia (12 percent).

If the administration thinks they can buy influence with Muslim Brotherhood groups –remember, the Brotherhood sees itself as waging “civilizational jihad” against us– then they’re either nuts, naive, or both. If the SNC comes to power, I advise all US Foreign Service staff there to carry weapons at all times.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

Syria: maybe the world will get lucky and they’ll all snuff each other

The Assad family dictatorship has been pretty darned awful, but the opposition isn’t any better. The al-Nusra front, a major component of the Free Syrian Army that’s fighting to overthrow Assad, is about to be declared a terrorist organization. Given al Nusra’s involvement in the massacre of civilians and their connection to al Qaeda, you can probably see why it would be problematic for us to start giving them lots of weapons.

No problem, though. We can just arm the other rebel  groups, and everything will be hunky-dory.

Erm… Well…

Meanwhile, however, the “new opposition coalition” fighting for Syria, whose unity was solidified in mid-November, isn’t much of a step forward.  Its leader is Moaz al-Khatib, a Muslim Brotherhood member with a history of anti-Semitic, anti-Western statements, who has castigated as “revisionists” fellow Muslims (like Alawites) whose beliefs differ on the margins, and who believes that the bombing of Israelis is “evidence of God’s justice.”  Al-Khatib admires Yusuf al-Qaradawi, spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, who encourages Muslim nations to acquire nuclear weapons and “terrorize their enemies.”  Western media naturally refer to al-Khatib as a “moderate.”

With Al-Nusra and the new opposition coalition duking it out for Syria against Iran and Assad, Greenfield puts it this way: “Syria is coming down to a race between the Iranian allied Syrian government, the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda.”

Wonderful. At least we have Team Smart Power to sort all this out for us and make the savvy choices, right?

Right?

I have no problem with playing the “Great Power” game and working to overthrow Assad, an important client of Iran and patron to Iran’s cat’s-paw, Hizbullah. Taking down the mafiocracy in Damascus would gravely weaken the influence of  the mullahs in the area around Israel. They know that, too, which is why they’ve put their elite Revolutionary Guard corps into Syria’s “internal” war. And, let’s face it, the Iranians have been at war with us since the Shah was overthrown, whether we’ve acknowledged that or not.

But, let’s be smart about it. Giving weapons to those who might turnaround some day and use them on us or our allies would be trading one hot mess for another, all in pursuit of a short-term gain. It may well be that, in light of calm analysis, our options there are limited, that there may only be a very few players we can work with. Fine. Far better be it to play the mediocre hand we’ve got and establish what influence we can with a possible post-Assad regime, than it would be to do the equivalent of drawing four cards and hoping for a straight, which is what shoveling weapons at al Nusrah or the FSA and keeping our fingers crossed would amount to.

That worked so well in Libya, after all.

Patience and restraint (and ignoring that fatuous “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine liberal internationalists have fallen in love with) here is by far the smartest use of power.

PS: “But what about Iraq?”, some may ask. “Didn’t you support intervening there?” Yep, I did at the time, and I still do. I believe the liberation of Iraq and the destruction of the Hussein regime was the right thing to do, given the totality of the strategic situation. But one of the weaknesses of the operation was our lack of knowledge about the players on the ground, and that lead to mistakes and serious problems during the occupation. Whatever we do in Syria, I’d like us not to suffer from a similar lack of knowledge.

PPS: Be sure to read all of J.E. Dyer’s post, just to see how charming our potential partners are. Two things to keep in mind: chemical weapons and “bunny snuff videos.”

via The Morning Jolt

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

Syria: Endgame for the Assad dictatorship?

If not the beginning of the end, having one’s prime minister run away and defect is not a sign that all is going well:

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government suffered a significant blow Monday when Prime Minister Riyad Hijab fled with his family to Jordan, two months after taking the top post.

Hijab said he defected. Syrian state media said he was fired.

“I announce today my defection from the killing and terrorist regime and I announce that I have joined the ranks of the freedom and dignity revolution,” Hijab said in a statement read in his name on Al Jazeera television.

State television, however, said Hijab was terminated and replaced by his deputy, Omar Ghalawanji.

​​The news came hours after state media said a bomb exploded at the state television building in Damascus, wounding several people.

Mind you, Hijab was only appointed late last June. He probably packed his bags before going to his swearing-in ceremony.

Regardless of whether he was fired or quit, this is another sign that the Assad dictatorship, often described as a mafia-government that kept the family’s Alawite sect on top of Syrian society, is crumbling faster and faster. Just three weeks ago, a bomb blast in Damascus killed the Syrian defense minister, a former defense minister, and Bashar Assad’s brother-in-law, showing that not even the core of the regime is safe from the rebels. After that, I’m sure that other Syrian officials besides Mr. Hajib have had similar thoughts of saving themselves:

Hijab’s departure followed an accelerating stream of defections from Syria’s armed forces, including that of Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlas, a former confidant and close friend of Assad’s who fled to Turkey a month ago, then went to France to join his father, a once-powerful former defense minister.

Last week, Syria’s top diplomat in Britain defected, telling the British Foreign Office that “he is no longer willing to represent a regime that has committed such violent and oppressive acts against its own people, and is therefore unable to continue in his position.”

Real power in Syria is wielded by Assad’s inner circle of friends, family and the powerful chiefs of his security forces. But the defection of the head of Assad’s government nonetheless sent a strong signal that his support is rapidly unraveling even within the ranks of those assumed still to be loyal.

Hijab, a former agriculture minister and a member of the ruling Baath Party, is a Sunni Muslim from the eastern town of Deir el-Zour, which has been in open revolt against the government for more than a year.

The Associated Press, quoting rebel leader Ahmad Kassim, said three other ministers defected along with Hijab, but that report could not be separately confirmed.

In addition, the wire service said that Turkey’s state-run news agency reported that Syria’s first astronaut had joined opposition forces. Mohammad Ahmad Faris, 61, crossed into Turkey after reaching the headquarters of the Free Syrian Army in the city of Aleppo, meeting with rebel commanders there and declaring his solidarity with the umbrella group of rebel fighters, the Anadolu agency reported.

This uprising in Syria is largely Sunni vs. Alawite, and there have been atrocities committed by both sides. Regional actors are deeply involved, the Saudis giving substantial aid to Sunni jihadist elements, while Iran has dispatched Revolutionary Guards to aid the regime. Turkey may be mobilizing an army on the border with its former province, and the Russians have sent in their marines.

Meanwhile, what’s our Smart Power team doing? We issued a statement:

Meanwhile, in Washington, the White House said the defection indicates the momentum is with opposition forces and the Syrian people.

National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said the defections are reaching the highest levels of the Syrian government and demonstrate that the Syrian people believe Assad’s days are numbered.

Vietor said the quickest way to end the bloodshed in Syria is for Assad to recognize that the Syrian people will not allow him to continue in power. And Vietor renewed U.S. calls for Assad to leave power and allow for a political transition.

Of course, and in fairness, there’s not much Clinton, who’s on her way to Turkey for talks, could do in this situation. Three years of the “Obama Doctrine” (whatever that is) have made US influence in the Middle East nearly a joke and, absent strong leadership from us, local forces and regional actors are going to look out for their own interests. Apparently we do have …er… “secret plans” to assist the rebels, though how much influence that would give us is an open and even dubious question, as is the consequences of any intervention on our part; don’t forget that Barack’s Big Adventure in Libya was a direct (and unintended) factor in the collapse of neighboring Mali.

While the Syrian regime seems to be heading for its fall, and while there are good humanitarian and geopolitical arguments for intervening (the weakening of Hizbullah being one of the latter), there are very good arguments against it, such as the risk of empowering Sunni jihadists and getting involved in another sectarian war so soon after Iraq.

Perhaps the best thing to do is just what the administration appears to be doing: call for a transition, keep everyone talking, aid the rebels a little to keep the door open with them and perhaps strengthen the hand of whatever moderates there may be, and offer what good offices we have to all sides to prevent Syria’s civil war from becoming a regional conflict.

LINK: More at Hot Air.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

The fruits of Smart Power: Syria attacks US embassy

Since coming into office in 2009, the Obama administration has emphasized a policy of “reaching out” to the Syrian government, sending an ambassador there for the first time in four years. When the “Arab spring” revolts reached Syria and the Assad regime responded by shooting unarmed protesters in the streets, Secretary of State Clinton deployed Smart Power and called Assad a “reformer.” Despite Syria’s status as an Iranian ally and client, despite its support of terror (It’s even on Clinton’s list), and despite its pursuit of nuclear weapons, the Obama administration has shown remarkable restraint. Today, Team Smart Power got their reward.

Our embassy attacked by a mob:

Protesters loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad briefly broke into the U.S. embassy in Damascus on Monday and security guards used live ammunition to prevent them storming the French embassy, diplomats said.

No casualties were reported in the attacks but a U.S. official said Washington condemned Syria’s slow response and its failure to the prevent the assault on its embassy.

The attacks followed a visit by the U.S. and French ambassadors to the city of Hama last week in support of the hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators who have been gathering there despite attacks by Syrian forces.

“We are calling in the Syrian charge (d’affaires) to complain,” said the U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“We feel they failed (in their responsibility to protect U.S. diplomats). We are going to condemn their slow response.”

Well, that’s showing them. I bet the Syrian charge is even now quaking in his oxfords as he heads for his meeting with the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Outreach and Apologies — quaking from laughter, that is.

And I’m dead serious in the subject line: this attack on our and the French embassies was not a spontaneous expression of outrage on the part of people who just love Boy Assad. Syria attacked our embassy. The country a mafia-ocracy with the Assad clan at the top, and nothing happens without their say-so. You can bet this originated with the Mukhabarat, Syria’s intelligence service, who did the same thing in 2006. Assad was angered by the visit the US ambassador paid to Hama, a center of anti-Assad sentiment (1), and so, just like the little thug he is, he sent his boys around to trash our embassy.

And our response is to stamp our foot and whine “stop it!”

There was a time when this garbage would have been met with a different kind of protest: a warship and a barrage by naval artillery, sending its own message: “Don’t make us angry.”

But that was long ago, before the era of Hope, Change, and Smart Power.

Here’s how a “Phineas administration” would handle it. Since no American lives were lost, we can start with just a nice, little chat: the charge would come into this meeting and sit down before the desk of the Secretary of State. The Secretary would then quietly lay out a series of satellite photos — Mukhabarat headquarters, the Presidential Palace, Assad’s favorite summer home on the Mediterranean coast, you get the idea.

And in case the Syrian diplomat didn’t quite catch the drift, the Secretary would make the implied message clear: “That embassy is sovereign US territory. If this or anything like this ever happens again, I guarantee you President Assad will wake up to something far worse than an angry mob.” To put the punctuation on this, there would be small news items about the redeployment of (cruise missile carrying) US naval assets to the Eastern Mediterranean for “exercises.”

And that’s how you deal with Capone Assad.

LINKS: More at Hot Air and Legal Insurrection. Bryan Preston at PJM’s The Tatler blog sees the nature of the attack the same way I do and says the 3AM phone is ringing. Moe Lane has advice for Democratic administration appointees. As usual, Barry Rubin has sharp, hard-headed analysis.

Footnotes:
(1) The Assads have “a history” with Hama. A bloody one.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

A Mideast crisis by September?

And it’s not the one you’re probably thinking of, a unilateral declaration of statehood by the Fatah-Hamas Palestinian administration. Rather, analyst Barry Rubin has in mind the Egyptian elections scheduled for that month, elections that will very likely bring to power an anti-American, anti-Israeli, Islamist government — a situation made much worse thanks to Obama administration ineptitude and a failure to recognize even now what the dangers are.

Rubin’s articles are worth reading “cover to cover,” but let me cite a portion in which he asks what our “leaders” will say when the near-inevitable happens and Obama’s Mideast policy collapses:

Imagine the day after that election. What will the mass media say? What will the American politicians say?

–That they were wrong about the Egyptian revolution and the Muslim Brotherhood?

–That by helping to bring down the old regime, U.S. policy foisted a disaster on the region and on its own interests?

–That by celebrating how great the “Arab Spring” is and refusing to acknowledge the real threats and problems, Obama made catastrophic errors.

–That his policy has led to many advances for America’s enemies?

–That Israel is in a far worse strategic situation and certainly can’t and shouldn’t make any more concessions?

–That the Islamists are emboldened and thus both Hamas and the radicals who run Fatah are taking an even harder line?

–That the loss of faith in America by its Arab allies is now undeniably clear and they are scrambling to make their own deals with Iran and other extremists?

–That there is a real possibility of a war in which Egypt either joins directly or backs Hamas? Imagine, Egypt stays “neutral” but nobody stops thousands of Egyptian volunteers from crossing into Gaza to fight or even across the Egypt-Israel border to launch terror attacks?

–What will the Obama Administration do if in practice Egypt tears up the Israel-Egypt peace treaty even if it pretends that it isn’t doing so?

–People are insisting that if Hamas in practice becomes part of the Palestinian Authority that the United States, and certainly Congress, will cut off aid. But what will happen when the Obama Administration does everything possible to prevent an aid cut-off and nothing possible to pressure the PA into changing its policy or behavior?

These are not speculations. These things WILL happen. Nobody in the United States or Europe is seriously discussing these scenarios and what should be done about them.

As I said, that’s not the half of it; Lebanon is increasingly under Hizbullah’s dominance (and thus becoming a satrapy of Syria and Iran), Assad is showing he will kill however many it takes to stay in power in Syria, and Iran marches on to nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them. And all of this has been made worse by bumbling US policies since Obama took over.

Yet he and his administration (and his defenders in the media) show no sign that they understand what is happening, continuing instead to pretend that territorial concessions will solve anything.

The Hippocratic Oath is often paraphrased by “First do no harm.” Someone should whisper those words to President Obama before it’s too late.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

United Nations hits new low, keeps digging

If anything shows what a farce and travesty the UN has become, it’s Syria’s forthcoming membership on the UN Human Rights Council:

The brutal crackdown by Syrian President Bashar Assad may finally be getting the attention of world leaders — but apparently not enough to stop Syria from becoming the newest member of the U.N. Human Rights Council.

And despite calling for an independent investigation into the crackdown, which has left hundreds dead, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon apparently won’t do much about blocking Syria’s path to the human rights group.

Nah, Ban’s too busy with the important stuff: attending meaningless conferences, issuing vapid statements, and generally trying desperately to pretend he’s anything other than the UN’s head waiter. I wonder how much Assad tipped him for the seat at the UNHRC table, no questions asked?

As Michael Totten writes:

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but I’m pretty sure the absurdness of this situation is self-evident and that no comment is necessary.

It speaks for itself.

RELATED: Human rights, a la Assad. This is the man Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently called “a reformer,” thus removing all doubt about her qualifications to be president.

Will someone please unleash Stuxnet on Wikileaks?

Thanks to the sanctimonious, self-righteous hacker-children of Wikileaks, we now have possible answer to why the Obama administration has been so gentle, even pusillanimous, toward the popular revolt against Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad: We’ve been secretly backing the opposition:

The State Department has secretly financed Syrian political opposition groups and related projects, including a satellite TV channel that beams anti-government programming into the country, according to previously undisclosed diplomatic cables.

The London-based satellite channel, Barada TV, began broadcasting in April 2009 but has ramped up operations to cover the mass protests in Syria as part of a long-standing campaign to overthrow the country’s autocratic leader, Bashar al-Assad. Human rights groups say scores of people have been killed by Assad’s security forces since the demonstrations began March 18; Syria has blamed the violence on “armed gangs.”

Barada TV is closely affiliated with the Movement for Justice and Development, a London-based network of Syrian exiles. Classified U.S. diplomatic cables show that the State Department has funneled as much as $6 million to the group since 2006 to operate the satellite channel and finance other activities inside Syria. The channel is named after the Barada River, which courses through the heart of Damascus, the Syrian capital.

The U.S. money for Syrian opposition figures began flowing under President George W. Bush after he effectively froze political ties with Damascus in 2005. The financial backing has continued under President Obama, even as his administration sought to rebuild relations with Assad. In January, the White House posted an ambassador to Damascus for the first time in six years.

The cables, provided by the anti-secrecy Web site WikiLeaks, show that U.S. Embassy officials in Damascus became worried in 2009 when they learned that Syrian intelligence agents were raising questions about U.S. programs. Some embassy officials suggested that the State Department reconsider its involvement, arguing that it could put the Obama administration’s rapprochement with Damascus at risk.

And not just that shortsighted, naive rapprochement would be at risk. There’s a reason programs like these are kept secret: their revelation could not only wreck the operation, but also get people killed.

The US has very good reasons for supporting the Syrian opposition, far stronger and more relevant that whatever rationale was used to justify the attack on Libya: Syria is a terrorist sponsor that has the blood of Americans, Lebanese, Iraqis, and Israelis on its hands. During the insurgency in Iraq, it actively supported jihadists and Baathist remnants in their guerrilla war against the Coalition and the new Iraqi state. It is a key client and ally of Iran, our deadly enemy, which itself is in pursuit of nuclear weapons  and has promised to use them.  Taking down the Assad regime would would greatly weaken Iran’s hand in the region.

For these and many other reasons, we have a strong national interest in seeing regime change in Damascus, and I’m glad to see the Obama administration continued Bush’s efforts to support and aid the opposition.

But that may all come crashing down now at the cost of many brave Syrian lives.

So, why’d you do it, Wikileaks? Not getting enough media attention lately? Or are you so lost in a childish moral equivalence that you think you’re helping poor little third-world Syria against the evil capitalist bully? Don’t hurt yourself patting yourself on the back and don’t worry about the Syrians now exposed to torture and death just so you could be big-shots again.

I’d call you “jackasses,” but I’d have to find a mule to apologize to.

And I wasn’t kidding in the subject: if someone could devise a virus to foul up the Iranian nuclear program, surely something similar could be cooked up to fry the servers hosting Wikileaks. They’re clearly acting as enemies of the US and her allies, now.

RELATED: This isn’t the first time Wikileaks has exposed a covert American ally working to end a brutal dictatorship. And they may well have Afghan blood on their hands, too.

via Legal Insurrection

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

I want what Kerry’s smoking

Senator John Kerry (D-Christmas in Cambodia) expects Syrian help to disarm Hizbullah. He should talk to the Vice-President, who can tell him not to worry: we already kicked Hizbullah out of Lebanon with the help of the French.

It’s the Hundred Acres Wood foreign policy in action:

Can you say, "dangerously naive?" I thought you could. This is going to be a long four years.

(hat tip: LGF)

 

Technorati tags: John Kerry, Syria, foreign policy, Hizbullah, fantasies, Winnie the Pooh, naifs, Joe Biden

Meanwhile, back in the war…

Two items of note from The Long War Journal:

First and most dramatic, US Special Forces launched a helicopter-borne raid into Syria today, killing what Syrian television (an unbiased and independent source, I’m sure) described as "construction workers."

Syrian officials claim the US military conducted a cross-border raid into Syria from Iraqi territory.

The raid was reportedly carried out in the town of Sukkariya near Abu Kamal in eastern Syria. According to witnesses, four US helicopters crossed the border and two of the helicopters landed to drop off special operations forces.

Syrian television claimed nine people were killed and 14 were wounded during the raid. Syria claimed of those killed and wounded were construction workers.

The raid occurred close to the main border crossing point between Iraq and Syria. Al Qaeda declared an Islamic Emirate in Al Qaim right along the Iraqi border during the spring of 2005. Al Qaeda terrorized the local tribes and attempted to institute a Taliban-like rule. Al Qaim was the main infiltration route into Iraq until US Marines and Iraqi troops launched a campaign to dislodge al Qaeda from the region.

The US has neither confirmed nor denied the operation took place. If the attack occurred, it would have been carried out by Task Force 88, the special operations hunt-killer teams assigned to target al Qaeda operatives as well as Shia terrorists in Iraq.

The US has shied away from conducting strikes inside Syria in the past. If confirmed this would be the first such strike inside Syria since the US invaded Iraq in March of 2003.

And it’s long overdue. Syria has been facilitating the movement of terrorists into Iraq and supplying them with equipment for years. As far back as 2004, I was advocating raids and airstrikes against Syria, in order to "educate" the leadership there; I think our restraint only bought us more trouble.

Still, one wonders what was going on there. If we simply wanted to kill some brave, brave jihadis, we could have fired off Hellfire missiles, as we regularly do against the Taliban hiding in Pakistan. A helicopter assault, especially one that puts boots on the ground in hostile territory, is much riskier. I can only think there was something or someone very valuable there. Was this a raid to capture or kill a very high-value target? Who knows? The US as of now isn’t doing much talking. But those "construction workers" were hiding something big, of that I’m certain.

Second, we struck the Taliban and their al Qaeda allies in Pakistan again today,  hitting what sounds like a training camp:

US unmanned Predator aircraft have struck again inside Pakistan’s tribal areas. The latest attack occurred in the Shakai region north of Wana in South Waziristan. This is a region under the control of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud.

Eight people were reported killed after missiles struck what a Pakistani security official described as a "facility." The Taliban and al Qaeda are known to have numbers camps and support facilities in South Waziristan. There are no reports of senior Taliban or al Qaeda leaders killed or wounded.

The US has targeted Baitullah’s tribal areas at least three times this year. The US military targeted Baitullah Mehsud in his hometown of Makeen on June 14.

The LWJ article points out that this is part of an accelerated series of attacks against the Taliban and al Qaeda, who are hiding in Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province, over most of which the Pakistani government has abandoned all but the flimsiest pretense of sovereign control. In 2006 and 2007, we staged a total of ten attacks. This year alone, we’ve struck the enemy in Pakistan 25 times. I think it’s a reflection of both concern over the Taliban and al Qaeda’s resurgence in their safe havens and of us gaining access to better intelligence regarding their movements and activities. This year, we’ve sent three of al Qaeda senior leaders to meet Allah. That and the increased pace of attacks should worry bin Laden and his toad, Zawahiri.

Something that should worry us: al Qaeda has 157 known training camps in the NWFP, and US intelligence believes the next major strike against the West will come from this area.

Oh, and nuclear-armed Pakistan is falling apart.

LINKS: More at Power Line and Hot Air.

 

Technorati tags: Taliban, Pakistan, al Qaeda, Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud, Syria, raids, Sukkariya

Rumors of war

A few days ago, I linked to a news story that Israel was contacting reservists, making sure their information was up to date in case of … ?

Now the Jerusalem Post reports that a London-based Arabic newspaper, al-Hayat, is claiming that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has given Turkey a heads-up about major military operations against Hamas and Hizbullah and politely warned Syria to butt-out:

Defense Minister Ehud Barak relayed a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad through the Turkish president that Israel plans to escalate militarily the situation with Hizbullah and Hamas, the London-based newspaper, Al-Hayat, reported on Thursday.

According to the report, Barak encouraged Damascus to take a different stance towards Hizbullah, and emphasized that such a move would be seen as a goodwill gesture, and would open up the possibility for peace negotiations between the two countries.

Further, the report stated that the defense minister informed the Turks that Israel plans to launch a massive military operation in the Gaza Strip. Barak requested that following the campaign, Turkey take part in an international peacekeeping coalition which would ensure the cessation of Kassam rocket fire, the report said. Other members of the potential international force would include troops from Qatar, Malaysia, and Jordan.

Associates of Barak refused to comment on the report, saying only that stories which derive from leaks do not merit responses.

Israel has put up with a lot in recent years: their reward for withdrawing from Lebanon has been the posting of a genocidal enemy on their northern border, while pulling out of Gaza has earned them dozens of Hamas rocket attacks daily against their border towns, something no government can tolerate for long. With Hizbullah threatening open war in the wake of Imad Mughniyeh’s killing, it’s little wonder that they might decide to “clear the decks” in one big offensive. And that’s particularly true given their failure to destroy Hizbullah in the 2006 war, something that only created a perception of weakness and encouraged their enemies.

The politeness of the “suggestion” to Syria was amusing: remember that, during the 2006 fighting, Israel broke some sonic booms over Bashar Assad’s palace, just to say “hi.” And, last summer, the IAF carried out an air raid deep in Syrian territory that’s widely believed to have destroyed a nuclear weapons facility that had been built with North Korean help. In this light, the suggestion is really an ominous warning to Bashar Assad: “We can get to you any time we want, so stay out.”

The suggestion of Qatar, Malaysia, and Jordan as peacekeepers isn’t as weird as it might seem from an Israeli point of view. All are among the more “moderate” Muslim states. Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel, while the other two are known to cooperate under the table. All three might be willing to participate in a robust peacekeeping force “to protect the people from the Israelis,” but really to suppress a jihadist organization that’s an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, and thus a threat to secular and moderate regimes in the region.

If this report is true –rumors being more common than sand in the Middle East– it may take only one small incident to set off a big war.

(hat tip: PJM)

Technorati tags: Hamas, Hizbullah, Israel, Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, Qatar, Jordan, Malaysia, Ehud Barak, Turkey

One more rat sent to Hell

Who blew up Imad Mughniyeh?

For now, my money is on the Israelis. Not only have they wanted to get Mugniyeh for over 20 years, but, in the wake of their failure in the Hizbullah War of 2006, they’ve needed to reestablish themselves as a nation not to be screwed with — the Middle East is a region where any sign of weakness is punished. Israel’s air-raid on the "secret" Syrian nuclear facility a few months ago was one step. Killing the military chief of Hizbullah and one of Iran’s most important proxies is likely another.

Some have argued that car-bombing is more of a Syrian technique, pointing the finger at Damascus, where Mughniyeh died. I’m not convinced. Mossad has used car-bombs before, notably in the hunt for the perpetrators of the 1972 Munich massacre. (Update: The Long War Journal, linked below, points out two more recent instances of the Israelis using car-bombs.)

It also makes little sense for this to be a Syrian job. Hizbullah is an Iranian creation, and Mughniyeh was a top leader of the organization. He also was a key operative for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. And Hizbullah is also one of Syria’s main tools for exerting its influence in Lebanon — particularly after their military was forced out of Lebanon in the 2005 Cedar Revolution. I can’t see Syria doing something that would anger their client, Hizbullah, and their patron, Iran, and harm their own interests in Lebanon.

No, this was an Israeli job. One that likely has Mughniyeh’s boss, Sheikh Hassan "Dead Man Walking" Nasrallah wetting himself.

And let’s be clear: Imad Mughniyeh was a rabid rat who got what he deserved.

Well done, Mossad.

LINKS: Lots of coverage at Pajamas Media; follow the first link, above. More at Fausta’s blog, The Long War Journal, The Belmont Club, Sigmund Carl & Alfred, Melanie Phillips, Meir Javendanfar, The Jawa Report, and Hot Air.

Technorati tags: Imad Mughniyeh

Syria preparing for guerilla war?

Syria learned in the 1973 Yom Kippur War that it would never recover the Golan Heights from Israel through conventional warfare. But the recovery of that territory has been an enduring goal of Syrian policy ever since. Now, in the wake of Israel’s daring –and, for Syria, humiliating– raid on what was likely a secret nuclear facility run with North Korean help, there are indications that Damascus may be preparing to launch a guerilla war, complete with IEDs, inside northern Israel itself. Rusty Shackleford of The Jawa Report has the story:

Using the war with Lebanon-Hezbollah of last summer as a model, Syria is preparing its own guerrilla war, in large part by starting a new terror organization– elements of which are based inside of Israel– called the Committees for the Liberation of the Golan.

While the Hezbollah-like committees have been formed for some time, The Israeli attack on an alleged nuclear target in Syria may have catalyzed Syria’s guerrilla-war plans.

Mohammad Habbash, a member of the Syrian parliament, told reporters yesterday that Syria may resort to guerrilla war:

"If the Israeli side launches attacks, believe me we will be very harsh in our response," stated Habbash. "It will be a guerrilla war. There will be guerrilla warfare coming from Lebanon and Syria, and it will be very harsh."

The Iranians have apparently been pressuring their Syrian clients to make some sort of response after the Israeli raid, which carried a message for Iran, too. Since Syria can’t win on the open battlefield, a resort to unconventional warfare would be logical.

Except, I don’t think Jerusalem would show the same restraint toward Syria that we have in the face of Iranian and Syrian aid to terrorists killing our troops in Iraq. On the contrary, Israel might well decide that the quickest way to defeat guerillas is to take out their support network — that is, their quartermasters in Syria. All-out war would be the result, and Syria knows what happens
when they face the Israelis on the battlefield.

If I were Boy President Assad, I’d think very hard before unleashing these "committees."

 

Technorati tags: Committees for the Liberation of the Golan, Syria, Israel, Iran, Golan Heights, assymetrical warfare, guerilla war, terrorism

Useless

If anything ever showed the fecklessness of the International Atomic Agency, it’s the election of Syria as Deputy Chairman of the IAEA’s General Conference:

The Syrian news agency SANA proudly reported the election on Tuesday, adding that Syria was also successful in including "the Israeli nuclear arsenal as an item on the agenda of the conference."

The agenda for the meeting includes the item "Israeli nuclear capabilities and threat." While Iran will be a focus of the discussions, there is no item on the agenda referring to the Islamic Republic by name.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry had "no public comment" on Syria’s election.

But Gerald Steinberg, chairman of Bar-Ilan University’s political science department and an authority on nonproliferation, said the election "reflects the absurdity of the political process inside the IAEA."

This, of course, is the same country that had its secret nuclear facility bombed. You know, the one it was running with the help of North Korea?

Talk about the fox guarding the henhouse.

As the article points out, the position is symbolic. But symbolism is important. To have a known terror-sponsoring state that is cooperating with other pariah states to obtain nuclear weapons chair a meeting of an organization meant to control the spread of nuclear weapons is absurd. It lays bare the meaninglessness of the IAEA’s mission. It is as if Senator Robert Byrd (D – WV), a former KKK recruiter, was elected honorary chairman of the NAACP.

Of course, pathetic impotence is the norm for the IAEA. Under its head, Mohamed ElBaradei, the organization has repeatedly bought Iran time to develop its own nuclear weapons, by running interference whenever the West seemed about to lose patience at last with Tehran’s lies. Whether it does this out of a desire to avoid all conflict whatsoever, even if that means an Iranian bomb, or ElBaradei actively wants Iran to develop nuclear weapons, I don’t know. In either case, the IAEA is useless when it comes to preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.

Elevating Syria to a position of honor in the General Conference just transforms this black comedy to a farce.

(hat tip: LGF)

LINKS: More at Israel Matzav, Atlas Shrugs, and Solomonia.

Technorati tags: Syria, IAEA, Iran, ElBaradei, nuclear proliferation, Gerald Steinberg, Robert Byrd

Fascist work accident

Oops! This is what happens when badly-behaved children play with the big boys’ toys:

Proof of cooperation between Iran and Syria in the proliferation and development of weapons of mass destruction was brought to light Monday in a Jane’s Defence Weekly report that dozens of Iranian engineers and 15 Syrian officers were killed in a July 23 accident in Syria.

According to the report, cited by Channel 10, the joint Syrian-Iranian team was attempting to mount a chemical warhead on a Scud missile when the explosion occurred, spreading lethal chemical agents, including sarin nerve gas.

Reports of the accident were circulated at the time; however, no details were released by the Syrian government, and there were no hints of an Iranian connection.

Syria’s well-known to have an extensive chemical-weapons program, though lately it seems they’ve been trying to branch out. And an Iranian connection shouldn’t surprise anyone: Syria is Iran’s client. Ruled by Alawite clans, resource-poor Syria has come to depend on Iran for money and weapons, and in turn helps Iran any way it can: funneling money and weapons to Hizbullah (which is little more than an arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard), for example. And their common hatred of Israel makes their cooperation even more natural.

So the idea that they would cooperate on WMD programs isn’t a reach, by any means. A few more incidents such as these, however, and the Israelis won’t have to bother themselves with destroying them.

LINKS: Read more at Blue Crab Boulevard, Gates of Vienna, Atlas Shrugs, Captain’s Quarters, The New York Post, and Power Line.

Technorati tags: Syria, Iran, sarin, nerve gas, WMDs, weapons of mass destruction, industrial accidents, Jane’s Defence Weekly

What would Holmes say?

Bret Stephens looks at the unusual silence from both Damascus and Jerusalem in the aftermath of the Israeli air-raid nearly two weeks ago and argues that silence speaks volumes:

What’s beyond question is that something big went down on Sept. 6. Israeli sources had been telling me for months that their air force was intensively war-gaming attack scenarios against Syria; I assumed this was in anticipation of a second round of fighting with Hezbollah. On the morning of the raid, Israeli combat brigades in the northern Golan Heights went on high alert, reinforced by elite Maglan commando units. Most telling has been Israel’s blanket censorship of the story–unprecedented in the experience of even the most veteran Israeli reporters–which has also been extended to its ordinarily hypertalkative politicians. In a country of open secrets, this is, for once, a closed one.

(and)….

More questions will no doubt be raised about the operational details of the raid (some sources claim there were actually two raids, one of them diversionary), as well as fresh theories about what the Israelis were after and whether they got it. The only people that can provide real answers are in Jerusalem and Damascus, and for the most part they are preserving an abnormal silence. In the Middle East, that only happens when the interests of prudence and the demands of shame happen to coincide. Could we have just lived through a partial reprise of the 1981 Israeli attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor? On current evidence, it is the least unlikely possibility.

(Emphasis added.)

I imagine that, if one were to ask Sherlock Holmes, he would arch an eyebrow, puff on his pipe, and refer cryptically to the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.

Technorati tags: Israel, Syria, Silver Blaze, Sherlock Holmes, Golan Heights, Maglan, Dayr az Zawr

Osirak, the sequel?

The Internet’s been abuzz lately with speculation about the Israeli air-raid nearly two weeks ago on a secret facility in northeastern Syria. At first thought to be an attack on weapons being shipped from Iran to Hizbullah in Lebanon, rumors now swirl around the possibility that this was a nuclear weapons research station, and that the material had come from North Korea:

IT was just after midnight when the 69th Squadron of Israeli F15Is crossed the Syrian coast-line. On the ground, Syria’s formidable air defences went dead. An audacious raid on a Syrian target 50 miles from the Iraqi border was under way.

At a rendezvous point on the ground, a Shaldag air force commando team was waiting to direct their laser beams at the target for the approaching jets. The team had arrived a day earlier, taking up position near a large underground depot. Soon the bunkers were in flames.

Ten days after the jets reached home, their mission was the focus of intense speculation this weekend amid claims that Israel believed it had destroyed a cache of nuclear materials from North Korea.

The Israeli government was not saying. “The security sources and IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] soldiers are demonstrating unusual courage,” said Ehud Olmert, the prime minister. “We naturally cannot always show the public our cards.”

The Syrians were also keeping mum. “I cannot reveal the details,” said Farouk al-Sharaa, the vice-president. “All I can say is the military and political echelon is looking into a series of responses as we speak. Results are forthcoming.” The official story that the target comprised weapons destined for Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shi’ite group, appeared to be crumbling in the face of widespread scepticism.

Andrew Semmel, a senior US State Department official, said Syria might have obtained nuclear equipment from “secret suppliers”, and added that there were a “number of foreign technicians” in the country.

Asked if they could be North Korean, he replied: “There are North Korean people there. There’s no question about that.” He said a network run by AQ Khan, the disgraced creator of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, could be involved.

The Times article makes it clear that few believe this facility was just a warehouse for Hizbullah-bound weapons. The presence of North Koreans is a very suspicious sign that something unusual was up: North Korea right now is in the midst of very sensitive negotiations to (supposedly) take down its nuclear program. Was Syria acting as a hiding place wherein the North Koreans could continue their research, in return for sharing? It’s telling that North Korea quickly denounced the attack, while they usually stay quiet on affairs outside their own area. And it’s long been suspected that Syria has been hiding WMDs smuggled out of Iraq before Saddam’s fall, so doing the same for Pyongyang would fit a pattern of behavior. (I should note, however, that there’s no hard evidence that Syria has Iraqi WMDs in storage. Just strong suspicions.)

Another possibility is that this research was for Iran’s benefit: perpetually strapped for cash, North Korea may have agreed to sell its stocks to Iran, so they could accelerate their own program. In that case, Syria, an Iranian client, would be a convenient shipping point.

Of course, the nukes could be for Syria’s own use, too. They’ve long been known to be developing chemical weapons, though nuclear weapons were considered beyond their financial grasp. However, if they are getting outside help from Iran, North Korea, and the Khan network, they might well have been working to adapt their supply of SCUD missiles to carry them. In a confrontation with Israel, playing the "we have nukes" card would dramatically change the power-balance between Damascus and Jerusalem.

And thus Israel could not tolerate even the possibility of Syria getting them. Just as with the raid against the Iraqi "Osirak" reactor in 1981, Israel, when convinced its national security is at stake, has shown it will take whatever action it deems necessary, world opinion be damned.

Besides the destruction of the compound itself, there are several messages in this latest Israeli action. First is the one to Syria and its leader, Chinless Wonder Bashar Assad: "Not only will we never allow you nuclear weapons but, by the way, boy, we can penetrate your expensive air-defense systems at will." (And, since the Russians were the main providers of this AA system, this is a lot of egg on their faces.)

Second is a message to Iran: "We hit Syria, whose air-defenses are better than yours, and don’t think we won’t hit you, too. Distance is not a problem." You can bet the black-robed fascists rulers in Tehran are paying close attention. (And probably wondering about all the money they, too, paid the Russians for their air-defense weapons.)

Third is to us and the Europeans: "Do something about Iran or we will do it for you, perhaps triggering a regional war."

There’s one other question. This Syrian "agricultural station" was on the other side of the country, 50 miles from the Iraqi border. Yet there was an Israeli commando team there to paint the target. How’d they get there? I suppose they could have traveled across Syria, but I somehow doubt it. I also don’t think they were airdropped all the way from Israel. But, just 50 miles to the east, their primary ally and patron has a large army with plenty of resources for staging special forces operations. And that same ally has a strong interest in not letting Iran or Syria get their hands on nuclear weapons.

Did the Israelis have active American cooperation in this raid? I’d like to think so.

Whatever the truth of the matter, the Israelis have provided an object lesson in how to deal with thugs: make it clear what you will and will not tolerate, and then act on it. Appeasing people who will only take advantage of your gestures of good faith and then spit in your eye is a recipe for disaster. They will gladly come to the all the conferences you want and say whatever they think you want to hear in their press releases, but the end result is the same: unless they are convinced you will use overwhelming force, rogue nations and their leaders will do whatever they want and laugh in your face.

It’s a lesson we’d do well to remember.

LINKS: More from the Center-Right at Jihad Watch, Atlas Shrugs, The Strata-Sphere, Little Green Footballs, Blue Crab Boulevard, and Captain’s Quarters. On the Left, the view at Firedoglake is typical.