The next war in Lebanon will be a big one

January 21, 2011

The Lebanese government collapsed last week when the ministers belonging to Hizbullah, the Shiite terrorist organization founded by Iran and patronized by Syria (itself an Iranian client), withdrew from the Cabinet of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in what amounts to a soft coup. Regardless of the publicly stated reasons given by Hizbullah, the real reason is to create a crisis to distract from looming indictments that will, when unsealed,  likely accuse the organization of assassinating PM Hariri’s father, then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Michael Totten reports today that the government crisis in Lebanon has taken a turn for the worse, as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has endorsed Hizbullah and the Syrian regime, likely to protect himself and his people. This renders a Hizbullah takeover all but inevitable, which, Totten believes, makes a war that will devastate Lebanon much more likely:

Everybody in Lebanon needs to understand something: Israel is more likely than ever to target the entire country during the next round of conflict. Not since 1948 has Israel fought a war against the Lebanese government; its wars in Lebanon have always been waged against terrorist organizations that were beyond the control of the state.

But if Hezbollah leads the government, the government will be a legitimate target. That’s how it works. Regime-change in Lebanon would have been an insane policy with Hariri’s March 14 coalition in charge, but it won’t be if Hezbollah is calling the shots.

The next war will almost certainly be bloodier than the last.

And why is that war inevitable, in my estimation? Because Hizbullah has never, ever been just about “justice” for the Shiites of Lebanon, who were traditionally among the country’s lower classes. Since its foundation by Iran, Hizbullah has been dedicated fanatically to jihad and the destruction of Israel. If they showed almost no restraint before, what makes anyone think they will in the future, once they control the levers of government and the country becomes an Iranian satrapy in all but name? The entire Lebanese state will be bent towards jihad against Israel — and against us. (See also)

If I lived in Lebanon, I would seriously consider taking the next plane out and never coming back.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

Advertisements

President Obama should learn from President Myung-bak

January 21, 2011

Yes, Obama used deadly force against Somali pirates, too, but it’s the attitude of the South Korean president he needs to emulate:

In a daring high-seas rescue, South Korean navy commandos today stormed a freighter that’s been held hostage for a week in the Arabian Sea, killing eight Somali pirates and freeing 21 crew members.

Five other pirates were captured. The ship’s captain was shot in the stomach by the pirates, but he’s expected to survive, South Korea said.

“Our special forces stormed the hijacked Samho Jewelry earlier today and freed all hostages,” Colonel Lee Bung-woo, a spokesman for South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff, told The Guardian and other reporters in Seoul. “During the operation, our forces killed some Somali pirates, and all of the hostages were confirmed alive.”

South Korea’s president went on national TV to laud the commandos’ success and warn any pirates against trying to hijack ships in the future.

“We will not tolerate any behavior that threatens the lives and safety of our people in the future,” President Lee Myung-bak said.

And that is how a national leader stands up for his country. Barack Obama’s diffidence is all too palpable, even when he does the right thing.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)