Study: Global Warming Actually More Moderate Than Worst-Case IPCC Models

April 21, 2015

Reality further diverges from the sacred models. Whatever will the hierophants of the Church of Anthropogenic Global Warming do?

Watts Up With That?

GISS_temperature_2000-09_lrg.jpg Image: NASA GISS

From Duke University, where they validate what we’ve been saying for quite some time: there’s a divergence between climate models and reality.

Global warming progressing at moderate rate, empirical data suggest

DURHAM, N.C. – A new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records suggests global warming is not progressing as fast as it would under the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now,” said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. “But this could change.”

The Duke-led study shows that natural variability in surface temperatures — caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors — can account for observed changes in the recent rates of warming from decade to decade.


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On the futility of climate models: ‘simplistic nonsense’

January 9, 2015

Should be required reading on the climate alarmists’ beloved computer models.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Leo Smith – elevated from a comment left on WUWT on January 6, 2015 at 2:11 am (h/t to dbs)


As an engineer, my first experience of a computer model taught me nearly all I needed to know about models.

I was tasked with designing a high voltage video amplifier to drive a military heads up display featuring a CRT.

Some people suggested I make use of the acoustic coupler to input my design and optimise it with one of the circuit modelling programs they had devised. The results were encouraging, so I built it. The circuit itself was a dismal failure.

Investigation revealed the reason instantly: the model parametrised parasitic capacitance into a simple single value: the reality of semiconductors is that the capacitance varies with applied voltage – an effect made use of in every radio today as the ‘varicap diode’. for small signals this…

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Why ‘Deniers’ are Always Wrong – Models can’t be falsified

August 15, 2014

An amusing example of how any weather phenomenon at all proves the global warming models must be right.

Watts Up With That?

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

How do we prove climate alarmists are wrong? Let us count the ways
If the temperature goes up, this is just what the models predicted – watch out because …

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I almost feel sorry for global warming cultists. Almost.

July 29, 2011

Pay no attention to facts! The science is settled!

I mean, when one of the central tenets(1) of your faith is shown to be wholly, absolutely wrong and all you can do is stand there slack-jawed and watch like a Philistine as the temple comes crashing down around you, it can be a bit… disheartening.

Truth hurts, doesn’t it? (Emphases added)

NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.

Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.

“The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show,” Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release. “There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.”

In addition to finding that far less heat is being trapped than alarmist computer models have predicted, the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted.

The new findings are extremely important and should dramatically alter the global warming debate.

Yeah, you bet they will, if they hold up.(2) Key to the “science” of dangerous man-caused climate change is the idea that the carbon-dioxide man dumps into the atmosphere, rather than being beneficial to plants and otherwise harmless, throws the Earth’s thermostat off and causes dangerous levels of warming — seas rising, ice caps melting, deserts expanding, etc. But not because the CO2 directly warms the atmosphere, though it may do that a teensy bit, but because it traps heat indirectly that should otherwise radiate to space by causing an increase in humidity and cirrus clouds.

See where this is going?

By discovering that the Earth releases far more heat than the UN’s models and releases it far earlier in the process than assumed(3), the central driving mechanism of anthropogenic global warming is shown to be nothing more than a myth, a chimera.

It is shown to be wrong, and with it the whole structure of dangerous man-caused climate change collapses.

Not that this will end this nonsense overnight. Too many people, businesses, and governments have too much false pride, money, and political objectives staked on AGW being true. The British government is enthusiastically driving its economy back into the dark ages in the name of solving  a problem that does not exist. The Obama administration is grasping for control over the US economy via EPA regulations meant to control “carbon pollution.” Alarmist scientists are desperate to preserve their reputations and grant money, and companies like GE and BP are investing a lot to profit from the “green technology” that’s supposedly meant to save us from global warming — and in government mandates that force us to use that technology.

Then there’s the question of faith, coming back to the title of this post. For many, “Green” or “Gaea” is a religion, though most might deny it. Full of loathing for capitalism and seeing an out of control climate as fit punishment for what we’ve done to the Earth, it’s important to them that carbon dioxide really be a demon, rather than plant food. Living the “green life,” rather than simply being sensible stewardship of the environment and not fouling one’s own nest, becomes a quest for virtue and atonement. And, like any zealot, they have to make sure we live their faith, too, whether we want to or not.

Thus Spencer and Braswell’s findings have to be devastating to alarmists who stop to think about them, and I almost feel sorry for them. Almost.

Nah. Not even close.

LINKS: Spencer and Braswell’s article in Remote Sensing (PDF). More at Hot Air, Power Line, and Pirate’s Cove.

RELATED: Oh, my. Polar Bear-gate? Fraud in the Warmist community? Say it ain’t so! *cough*Climategate*cough* A caution.

(1) Pet peeve: people who either misspell the word as “tenent” or misuse “tenant.”
(2) Yes, if. Science is about testable hypotheses, not consensus or settled science. Spencer and Braswell’s results have to be subjected to falsification.
(3) All the UN/IPCC computer models are based on boatloads of assumption, guesswork, and very little (and that often “adjusted”) empirical data, unlike the study at hand. That’s not science, that’s a rigged game.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

Poor Gaea, the little Earth goddess just can’t win

July 1, 2011

First the air is too dirty for us to breathe, so we clean it up. Then along come Gaea cultists climate-change researchers to tell us that, because we cleaned the air that —OMG!!!— the Earth will overheat!

New research initiated jointly by NUI Galway and the University of Helsinki reveals the true rate of greenhouse gas induced global warming has been masked by atmospheric aerosols (otherwise known as Particulate Matter), through their formation of reflective haze and cloud layers leading to an aerosol cooling effect.

The new investigations show that the present-day aerosol cooling effect will be strongly reduced by 2030 as more stringent air pollution abatements are implemented both worldwide and at the European scale and as advanced environmental technologies are utilised.

These actions are projected to increase the global temperature by 1°C and temperatures over Europe by up to 2-4°C depending on the severity of the action. This is one of the main research outcomes of the recently concluded EUCAARI (European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interaction) project funded by the European Commission.

The EUCAARI project, originally initiated by Professor Colin O’Dowd at NUI Galway’s Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies, who resided on the project’s management team, and led by Professor Markku Kulmala of the University of Helsinki, has provided new understanding of the impacts of aerosols and trace gases on clouds and climate.

According to Professor O’Dowd:“The quantification of the effect of aerosols on the radiative balance (cooling or heating) of the planet has been one of the most urgent tasks to underpin more informed projections of future climate change. Now that we have this data we need to reinforce European political decision-making to develop new strategies and implementation plans for global air quality monitoring and to take Europe a leading role in developing and applying environmental technologies. Furthermore, it is urgent that higher-resolution EU-scale projections are conducted using a new generation of regional models nested within the global models.”

I highlighted that last sentence because I figured it needed a translation from the bureaucratese (scientist dialect):

“We need more grant money.”

Clear now?

Note also the third paragraph, which begins “These actions are projected…” It’s a cute trick. “Projected” is a code word for using computer models using whatever data the researchers fed into it — data that’s possibly been “cleaned up” or otherwise manipulated, as we saw in the Climategate revelations and the exposure of Michael Mann’s “hockey stick” graph as useless garbage that would produce the (desired) scary result no matter what numbers were input. The fact is that we have only a very few decades of empirical observations to work with, and to try to “project” that out into the future when we’re dealing with extraordinarily complex and poorly understood climate systems is laughable.

Remember, they’re “projecting,” not “predicting.” To predict something would be to make it a test of the validity of the computer model, and with the lousy predictive record global-warming alarmists have so far, I doubt they’d want to do that. “Projection” is much better, because it allows the model-maker to escape accountability and hem-and-haw and say “the model must need more refinement” and then apply for another grant for money to pour down the same drain.

Do I sound cynical? Maybe it’s because there’s no evidence that’s yet been uncovered that shows that anything happening now is outside the range of what’s happened in the last several hundred million years, which we can see from the geological record.

With apologies to Drs. O’Dowd and Kulmala, until shown otherwise with empirical proof, rather than projections from models, I think it’s safe to keep cleaning the air.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

Facts defy the Goracle

November 15, 2009

Don’t they realize the science is settled? Why bother to continue research and ask “if” when the Inconvenient Truth requires us to ACT NOW?

Maybe its because, if we do, we’ll find the real truth: that anthropogenic global warming is a gigantic fraud.

Controversial new climate change results

New data show that the balance between the airborne and the absorbed fraction of carbon dioxide has stayed approximately constant since 1850, despite emissions of carbon dioxide having risen from about 2 billion tons a year in 1850 to 35 billion tons a year now.

This suggests that terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans have a much greater capacity to absorb CO2 than had been previously expected.

The results run contrary to a significant body of recent research which expects that the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans to absorb CO2 should start to diminish as CO2 emissions increase, letting greenhouse gas levels skyrocket. Dr Wolfgang Knorr at the University of Bristol found that in fact the trend in the airborne fraction since 1850 has only been 0.7 ± 1.4% per decade, which is essentially zero.

The strength of the new study, published online in Geophysical Research Letters, is that it rests solely on measurements and statistical data, including historical records extracted from Antarctic ice, and does not rely on computations with complex climate models.

I emphasized that last part because it’s important: the results from Bristol are based on empirical observation and the geologic record, not computer models that are by nature limited to the assumptions humans program into them, assumptions that have been shown to be fundamentally flawed.

The central argument of the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is that Man is pumping so much CO2 into the atmosphere that the the Earth’s ecosystem cannot absorb it all, and thus the excess is leading to dangerous temperature increases that will have catastrophic effects. The findings of Dr. Knorr, if they hold up to testing and replication, destroy the foundation of the AGW argument. If indeed there is no measurable excess of CO2 in the atmosphere, then there is no basis for the feared greenhouse effect. Thus the frantic effort to get the United States and other countries to hobble their economies in the name of “fighting climate change” is at best a Chicken Little moment of hysteria among true believers or, at worst, a mask behind which to hide the real statist agenda of extending government control over every aspect of our lives.

And they have to do it before the inconvenient facts wreck their Holy Truth.

LINKS: Watt’s Up with That calls the Bristol findings a bombshell. Heliogenic Climate Change discusses how the Arctic was much warmer in the recent geologic past than it is now. Fausta informs us that the Green Statist crowd is giving up on their latest attempt to impose a global Waxman-Markey fiasco on the world. Sister Toldjah relates how the US Environmental Protection Agency has threatened two of it lawyers who have dared to challenge AGW orthodoxy.