And it’s not the one you’re probably thinking of, a unilateral declaration of statehood by the Fatah-Hamas Palestinian administration. Rather, analyst Barry Rubin has in mind the Egyptian elections scheduled for that month, elections that will very likely bring to power an anti-American, anti-Israeli, Islamist government — a situation made much worse thanks to Obama administration ineptitude and a failure to recognize even now what the dangers are.
Rubin’s articles are worth reading “cover to cover,” but let me cite a portion in which he asks what our “leaders” will say when the near-inevitable happens and Obama’s Mideast policy collapses:
Imagine the day after that election. What will the mass media say? What will the American politicians say?
–That they were wrong about the Egyptian revolution and the Muslim Brotherhood?
–That by helping to bring down the old regime, U.S. policy foisted a disaster on the region and on its own interests?
–That by celebrating how great the “Arab Spring” is and refusing to acknowledge the real threats and problems, Obama made catastrophic errors.
–That his policy has led to many advances for America’s enemies?
–That Israel is in a far worse strategic situation and certainly can’t and shouldn’t make any more concessions?
–That the Islamists are emboldened and thus both Hamas and the radicals who run Fatah are taking an even harder line?
–That the loss of faith in America by its Arab allies is now undeniably clear and they are scrambling to make their own deals with Iran and other extremists?
–That there is a real possibility of a war in which Egypt either joins directly or backs Hamas? Imagine, Egypt stays “neutral” but nobody stops thousands of Egyptian volunteers from crossing into Gaza to fight or even across the Egypt-Israel border to launch terror attacks?
–What will the Obama Administration do if in practice Egypt tears up the Israel-Egypt peace treaty even if it pretends that it isn’t doing so?
–People are insisting that if Hamas in practice becomes part of the Palestinian Authority that the United States, and certainly Congress, will cut off aid. But what will happen when the Obama Administration does everything possible to prevent an aid cut-off and nothing possible to pressure the PA into changing its policy or behavior?
These are not speculations. These things WILL happen. Nobody in the United States or Europe is seriously discussing these scenarios and what should be done about them.
As I said, that’s not the half of it; Lebanon is increasingly under Hizbullah’s dominance (and thus becoming a satrapy of Syria and Iran), Assad is showing he will kill however many it takes to stay in power in Syria, and Iran marches on to nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them. And all of this has been made worse by bumbling US policies since Obama took over.
Yet he and his administration (and his defenders in the media) show no sign that they understand what is happening, continuing instead to pretend that territorial concessions will solve anything.
The Hippocratic Oath is often paraphrased by “First do no harm.” Someone should whisper those words to President Obama before it’s too late.
(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)