El Nino collapse appears to be underway

February 10, 2016

I had a feeling the current El Nino was turning out to be an “El Wimpo.” Still, we received some pretty good snowfalls in the Sierras, which is what California really needs, so here’s hoping this is the start of a growing trend.

Watts Up With That?

Global temperature anomalies since 2005; map courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue, Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA

The collapse of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean has begun and it will be rather dramatic. The current strong El Nino event reached its peak intensity level in December 2015 and all indications suggest it will completely flip to La Nina conditions by later this year. One of the important consequences of the current strong El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was a spike in global temperatures. However, if recent history is any guide, expect global temperatures to drop sharply after La Nina conditions become well-established in the tropical Pacific Ocean – likely during 2017 and perhaps beyond. –Paul Dorian, Vencore Weather, 5 February 2016

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The 2015 El Niño is shaping up to be a big one

July 23, 2015

The last predicted El Nino was a washout, as I recall, but, with California parched, let’s hope this one comes through. Read on for Anthony Watts’ warning though, that climate alarmists will almost certainly blame this on “global warming.” Sigh…

Watts Up With That?

1997-2015-el-nino

From NOAA NNVL:

July 2015 Ocean Temperatures –
Conditions are currently warming up in the Pacific, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the winter and most likely into the spring. This image shows the July 13-19, 2015 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. In addition to the warmer than normal waters generated by the El Niño conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also creating persistently higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific.

El Niño conditions are on the rise in the Pacific Ocean, this could potentially become a record event that might even beat the great 1997 El Niño as seen in the image above. We aren’t there yet, but the Climate Prediction Center has an advisory out that suggests we might be soon.

California could see an end to their drought situation, with the…

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If this isn’t a nail in the global-warming coffin, nothing is.

August 2, 2009

Global-warming alarmists and acolytes of the Goracle dismiss skeptics as “deniers,” asserting that the science is settled and that we have to take drastic action NOW before catastrophe strikes. They demand Congress pass the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill, which would be a catastrophe in its own right, not the least for fostering a trade war during a recession. Those who stand in their way deserve to be placed on trial for treason against the planet, in their view.

Their shrill hostility arises, in part, from mounting frustration that the scientific evidence is more and more turning against them. The latest blow comes not from some mere blog or mass-market pop-science book, but from one of the most respected peer-reviewed scientific journals in the world, The Journal of Geophysical Research. In the July 23rd issue, in an article titled “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature,” researchers McLean, de Freitas, and Carter argue that the vast majority of observed temperature anomalies over the past 50 years are due to shifts in the Pacific Ocean’s temperature pattern, not greenhouse gases:

Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the 1958−2008 period. GTTA are represented by data from satellite microwave sensing units (MSU) for the period 1980–2008 and from radiosondes (RATPAC) for 1958–2008. After the removal from the data set of short periods of temperature perturbation that relate to near-equator volcanic eruption, we use derivatives to document the presence of a 5- to 7-month delayed close relationship between SOI and GTTA. Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variance in GTTA for the 29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for the longer 50-year RATPAC record. Because El Niño−Southern Oscillation is known to exercise a particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI with tropical temperature anomalies between 20°S and 20°N. The results showed that SOI accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.

(Emphasis added)

I wonder when their heresy trial starts?

Meanwhile, scientists belonging to the American Chemical Society and American Physical Society are in open revolt against the leadership of their societies for trying to declare, a la Al Gore, that the fact of anthropogenic global warming is established beyond doubt and that skeptics are obstructionists.

That consensus is sure looking solid, isn’t it? Loser

Finally, reader Porkchop forwards a link to an editorial from an article yesterday’s Boston Globe. It may not be scientific, but it asks a good question: You call this summer?

LINKS: Climate Depot on the revolt at the ACS. Also, Watt’s Up With That.