Study: German Scientists Conclude 20th Century Warming “Nothing Unusual” …Foresee “Global Cooling Until 2080″!

August 23, 2015

We’ll probably be treated to the sight (again) of climate cultists protesting anthropogenic global warming… in a snowstorm.


Another study shows that 20thC temperature rise is nothing unusual historically.

The Die kalte Sonne site here features a worrisome essay by German climate scientists Horst-Joachim Lüdecke, Dr. Alexander Hempelmann and Carl Otto Weiss. They carefully examined climate changes of the past and have found that the recent changes (of the last 40 years are nothing out of the ordinary and that we need to worry about a global cooling that will persist until 2080.

I will let readers make their own judgements. But I will pose a simple question, which warmists always shy away from:

What brought about the MWP and subsequently the LIA, not to mention previous cold and warm episodes.
Their usual answer is to deny they ever existed, but the evidence overwhelmingly shows that they did.

Only when we understand these events can we begin to understand recent warming.

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Our quiet sun: long-term cooling on the way?

May 3, 2015

science agw sun

No, I’m not predicting from computer models where the results are largely predetermined by the inputs and assumptions of the programmers (1). I’m just noting a possibility based on simple observation of centuries of data. When Sol grows quiet for extended periods, the Earth grows colder:

The sun is almost completely blank. The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. The sun’s X-ray output has flatlined in recent days and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of strong flares in the next 24 hours. Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.

The article notes that declining solar activity doesn’t mean no solar storms that can disrupt communications — some very strong ones happen on the down-slope, so to speak. But, what we’re concerned with here is the possible effect on Earth’s climate. As you know if you’ve been reading this blog for a while, I’m of the school that holds the Sun far more responsible for Earth’s changing climate than any amount of carbon dioxide we’ve pumped into the atmosphere in the last century of so. And I believe the evidence supports that much more than it does the catastrophic man-caused climate change theology theory. From later in the article, here’s what happened the last time the Sun had a quiescent period of this magnitude or larger:

Finally, if history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a cooling impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere – and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830 (below). Both of these historical periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many scientists as the “Little Ice Age”. In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.

The highlighted portion refers to the work of Henrik Svensmark and others to study the relation between solar activity, cosmic rays,  and cloud formation on Earth, the last of which is a regulator of temperature  Early experimental results have lent credibility to this hypothesis, and I think we’ll eventually find that such natural cycles are the real reason for climate change on Earth, and not a trace gas that’s been raised to the level of an all-powerful demon.

(1) That’s the UN IPCC’s job.

Prof Bob Carter warns of unpreparedness for Global Cooling

September 14, 2014

No, I’ve not become a cold-climate alarmist, but I do think a long-term cooling is more likely than continued warming, simply based on the cycles and the Sun’s behavioral history. And long-term cooling is much harder on humanity than a gradual warming, increased crop failures being an example. Carter wrote an excellent survey of the skeptical case – Climate: the counter-consensus.

Watts Up With That?

HadCRUT_cooling from 2001

Eric Worrall writes:

Professor Bob Carter, writing in today’s edition of The Australian, a major Aussie daily newspaper, warns that the world is unprepared for imminent global cooling, because of the obsession of policy makers with global warming.

According to Bob Carter;

Heading for ice age

“GRAHAM Lloyd has reported on the Bureau of Meteorology’s capitulation to scientific criticism that it should publish an accounting of the corrections it makes to temperature records (“Bureau warms to transparency over adjusted records”, 12/9). Corrections which, furthermore, act to reinforce the bureau’s dedication to a prognosis of future dangerous global warming, by turning cooling temperature trends into warming ones — a practice also known to occur in the US, Britain and New Zealand.

Meanwhile, we have a report by Sue Neales that the size of our grain harvest remains in doubt following severe frosts in southern NSW killing large areas of early…

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Maurice Newman, Aussie PM Abbott’s most senior advisor, on the dangers of global cooling

August 14, 2014

Interesting speculation that, if we’re heading toward a period of global cooling, the various efforts to combat anthropogenic global warming have positioned us badly to deal with it. While we should be skeptical of any claims predicting this or that crisis, I do think a cooling scenario more likely than catastrophic warming. If it comes about, then the Warmists will have done much more harm than good.

Watts Up With That?

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

“WHAT if David Archibald’s book The Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short turns out to be right? What if the past 50 years of peace, cheap energy, abundant food, global economic growth and population explosion have been due to a temporary climate phenomenon?”

This is the first paragraph of Maurice Newman’s latest attack on the world’s infatuation with global warming.

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New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity

June 14, 2014

Well, if this plays out as predicted, it would be an “inconvenient truth” for the Warmist Cult.

Watts Up With That?

sc24 and historyFrom the HockeySchtick:  A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds long solar cycles predict lower temperatures during the following solar cycle. A lag of 11 years [the average solar cycle length] is found to provide maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature. On the basis of the long sunspot cycle of the last solar cycle 23, the authors predict an average temperature decrease of 1C over the current solar cycle 24 from 2009-2020 for certain locations.


► A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle.
► A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations.
► Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
► A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.

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(Video) Concerned environmentalists can’t figure out if it’s “global warming” or “global cooling”

May 26, 2014
"We're still here!"

“We’re still here!”

So, PJTV’s Michelle Fields went out among the people in Washington, D.C., to find out what self-described “environmentalists” thought about global warming… or, maybe, global cooling. Or maybe both at the same time. Either way, most were sure government should do something about it. Whatever “it” is.

Just do something!

Actually, I agree with the last person’s mother: they can’t even accurately predict the weather a week out, so why take seriously predictions for a century from now?

But, government should do something!

PS: That 97% consensus among scientists that catastrophic anthropogenic climate change is real that one person mentioned? It’s bunk.

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)

Global warming headline of the year

February 28, 2012

And it’s only February:

Yes, so powerful is the effect of a trace gas that serves mainly as plant food, that it can make the world cooler while simultaneously causing dangerous warming. Call it a one-stop shop for natural disasters, all of which can be reliably blamed on Mankind, and the only solution to which is greater governmental control (1) over our economies and daily lives.

Next up: man-caused climate change causes sun to rise in West and Barack Obama to become a fan of the free market.

Global warming — is there nothing it can’t do?

And is there any way the climate alarmists could make themselves look more fatuous and desperate? Why, yes, there is.

Hat-tip to  WUWT, which notes the headline has since changed, probably out of embarrassment. And here’s a link to the original Georgia Tech press release, which climate-hysteric “journalists” predictably screwed up.

(1) Especially by transnational bureaucracies answerable to no one and supported by global taxes. Winning!

(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)