The sea is rising! The sea is rising!

November 28, 2010

If only we had listened to the Goracle!

That’s the global-warming alarmist’s version of Chicken Little’s cry “the sky is falling!” They warn us that, thanks to mankind and the greenhouse gases he pours into the atmosphere, the Earth’s temperature will rise, the ice caps will melt, and coastal cities will be flooded.

Disaster!!

Calm down, little cultist. Your religion may demand that we be punished for our sins against Mother Gaea (Warming and sea-level rise… fire and flood?), but it’s not the catastrophe you think. There is such a thing as land subsidence along coasts, and the sea level has been rising gradually since the end of the last ice age. You don’t need evil spirits greenhouse gases to explain it.

And, all that aside the predictions of disaster from sea-level rise are risible, as Anthony Watts shows, using the History Channel’s dire predictions for Manhattan as an example:

Yeah, [the water level at Battery Park is] headed up, wayyyy up. 2.77 millimeters per year. So, to get the levels in the photo and 3D GE model shown above, we’d need to do some simple calcs.

The Google Earth 3D model is easy. It specifies a 3-5 meter sea level rise, so we’ll call it 4 meters.

For calculation purposes, we’ll assume sea level rise to be linear, and round up the Battery Park tide gauge rate to 3.0 mm per year, which puts it closer to the 3.1 mm per year measured by satellite and published at Colorado State University’s Global Sea Level Page.

4 meters = 4000 millimeters

4000 millimeters /3.0 millimeters per year = 1333 years

Read the whole thing; Anthony uses other examples to demolish History Channel’s hysteria-laced argument, and finds the study of Manhattan’s history of land reclamation since 1640 to be most illuminating. Between the time needed for the seas to rise catastrophically and Mankind’s adaptability and creative use of technology, we’ll be in a new ice age with the water being locked up before we’re ever flooded out.

Rest easy, Chicken Little.