It’s no surprise that the ever more desperate climate alarmists have decided to chase hurricanes this year. The Arctic is not cooperating with the warming, “death spiral” scenarios any longer
There goes another Warmist, eco-zealot narrative. It seems the ice isn’t vanishing, after all.
One of the reasons (1) I’ve been so skeptical over the years regarding the theory of catastrophic man-caused global warming (2) is that, to date, not a single one of its apologists’ predictions have come true. None. Zip. Zero. Nada. Not the tropospheric hot spot, not the frequency of storms (that was later changed to “storm intensity” when they failed to appear on schedule), not snow-less winters… It goes on and on.
Now we have another one.
For years, climate cultists up to and including Al Gore himself have claimed that global warming would lead to the disappearance of Arctic ice, with, of course disastrous and DOOM!!! for us all. This, in spite of there being less ice in the Arctic 6,000-7,000 years ago (3), when we supposedly lived in a climatic golden age.
Guess what? They’re wrong again:
“Dire predictions that the Arctic would be devoid of sea ice by September this year have proven to be unfounded after latest satellite images showed there is far more now than in 2012.
Scientists such as Prof Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University, and Prof Wieslaw Maslowski, of the Naval Postgraduate School in Moderey, California, have regularly forecast the loss of ice by 2016, which has been widely reported by the BBC and other media outlets.
Prof Wadhams, a leading expert on Arctic sea ice loss, has recently published a book entitled A Farewell To Ice in which he repeats the assertion that the polar region would free of ice in the middle of this decade.
As late as this summer, he was still predicting an ice-free September.
Yet, when figures were released for the yearly minimum on September 10, they showed that there was still 1.6 million square miles of sea ice (4.14 square kilometres), which was 21 per cent more than the lowest point in 2012.“
Real science is kept accountable through reproducibility and verification by experiment. Shouldn’t the climate change cult be held to the same standards, and shouldn’t the failure of any of their models to accurately predict the future (let alone model the past) be held against them?
I must hate the Earth, or something.
via Jeff Jacoby
(1) Aside from bad science, corruption, and a misanthropic religious fervor…
(2) Later changed for marketing reasons to “climate change” when the world failed to warm as predicted…
(3) And yet the polar bears seemed to do just fine. It’s as animals can adapt. Weird.
So much for the hysterical claim that the Demon CO2 was melting the Greenland ice cap. Be sure to click through: I especially like the graphic of the “lost ice cube.”
(Featured image borrowed from http://www.clipartbest.com)
Naturally, the Real Clear Science headline actually read…
Which sounds even more serious than the original headline…
One would think that the fact that 99.7% of Greenland’s ice sheet survived the 20th Century might just be more scientifically relevant than a 0.3% loss… But I guess that doesn’t make for a very dramatic headline.
View original post 580 more words
But wait. I thought the science was settled. Al Gore said so…
From the “settled science” department and former chief alarmist Jay Zwally, who for years had said the Arctic was in big trouble (only to have his prediction falsified), comes this Emily Litella moment in climate science: “Never mind!”. Curiously, WUWT reported back in 2012 about an ICEsat study by Zwally that said: ICESAT Data Shows Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses. I surmise that with the publication of this second study, the original is now confirmed. I suppose John Cook will have to revise his “Denial 101” video on Antarctica now.
This map shows the rates of mass changes from ICESat 2003-2008 over Antarctica. Sums are for all of Antarctica: East Antarctica (EA, 2-17); interior West Antarctica (WA2, 1, 18, 19, and 23); coastal West Antarctica (WA1, 20-21); and the Antarctic Peninsula (24-27). A gigaton (Gt) corresponds to a billion metric tons, or 1.1 billion…
View original post 1,297 more words
But, wait. I thought all the polar ice was vanishing because of warming that hasn’t been happening for 18 years — and counting. I’m so confused! Enlighten me, Al Gore!
From YORK UNIVERSITY and the “paging Dr. Peter Wadhams” department…
Northwest passage routes. Stock Image: Wikipedia TORONTO, September 29, 2015 – Despite climate change, sea ice in the (NWP) remains too thick and treacherous for it to be a regular commercial Arctic shipping route for many decades, according to new research out of York University.
Prior to this research, there was little information about the thickness of sea ice in the NWP, which meanders through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Yet, next to ice coverage and type, sea ice thickness plays the most important role in assessing shipping hazards and predicting ice break-up.
“While everyone only looks at ice extent or area, because it is so easy to do with satellites, we study ice thickness, which is important to assess overall changes of ice volume, and helps to understand why and where the ice is most vulnerable to summer melt,”…
View original post 611 more words
Maybe it’s magic to them: if they say it often enough, it will come true! (Hey, I’ve always said it was a cult…)
The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) cult is getting desperate now that their dire predictions of global warming are coming under intense scrutiny since the Earth’s temperature anomalies have been flat for over 18 years.
Instead of confronting the inconvenient truth of this data and reworking their flawed models they instead choose to double down on the same tired predictions that just aren’t coming true.
That’s a nice prediction you have there but unfortunately the data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center the Antarctic sea ice extent show that for the past 2 years the sea ice down there has been ABOVE the 2 standard deviation level of the average from 1981 to 2010.
The AGW cult is beyond pathetic.
How dare Nature continue to deny The Goracle?
Guest essay by Rolf E. Westgard
In his 2007 Noble Prize acceptance speech, former Vice President Al Gore warned that the “Arctic ice could be gone in as little as seven years.” Last week, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution reported:
“The North and South Poles are not melting.” In that report, oceanographer Ted Maksym noted that polar ice “is much more stable than climate scientists once predicted and could even be much thicker than previously thought.”
That Woods Hole study was confirmed by today’s NOAA Arctic radar map which shows the Arctic Ice Cap at more than 4,000,000 square miles, larger than on any December 28 in the past five years. Reaching the North Pole requires either a dog sled or a nuclear sub; Al Gore’s cruise ship will stay in the tropics. At the South Pole, Antarctic ice coverage is at the highest extent since radar measurement began…
View original post 345 more words
And another climate-alarmist claim begins to look dodgy, this time about the receding of Greenland’s glaciers. Click through for the details, but the gist is –say it after me– “natural cycles.”
Guest post by Jim Steele, director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University.
Based on NOAA’s 2014 Arctic Report Card, the past 2 decades of ice loss in Greenland has slowed dramatically in 2013-2014. In contrast to Velicogna’s (2014) previously published average mass loss of 280 +/-58 gigatons/year using GRACE satellite data, or the maximum loss of 570 gigatons in 2012-2013, there was only an insignificant loss of 6 gigatons from June 2013 to June 2014, or mere 1% of the previous year’s loss. A loss of 360 gigatons translates into a 1 millimeter rise in sea level, therefore the 2013-2014 sea level rise should be 1.3 mm less than the year before. And based on historical analyses, Greenland will likely begin gaining mass in the coming years.
View original post 1,297 more words
The Earth is going to keep shoving the Grapefruit of Facts in the faces of climate alarmists until they finally get a clue.
From NASA Gddard:
On Sept. 19, 2014, the five-day average of Antarctic sea ice extent exceeded 20 million square kilometers for the first time since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The red line shows the average maximum extent from 1979-2014. Image Credit: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio/Cindy Starr Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.
The new Antarctic sea ice record reflects the diversity and complexity of Earth’s environments, said NASA researchers. Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has referred to changes in sea ice…
View original post 878 more words
But wait… I thought the polar caps were melting and the cities would flood! I’m confused! Michael Mann… Al Gore… What’s happening? This truth is so inconvenient.
Sunshinehours reports that the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for September 19th, 2014 is 20.11297 million square kilometers,
which is 1,535,000 sq km above the 1981-2010 climatological mean.
Another 58,000 sq km. was added since yesterday, making it the 7th All-Time Record in 7 Days.
This new record is 610,000 sq km higher than the previous daily record. The red line represents 2014 data.
More data on the WUWT Sea Ice page
UPDATE: Andres Valencia reports in comments:
The University of Bremen (The new satellite “Shizuku”, AMSR2 sensor) will have to rescale their plots:
Yet another “inconvenient truth” for climate alarmists, in which Nature refuses to play along with their beloved computer models. In Warmist theology, the polar ice cap was supposed to vanish (ignore the fact that’s happened several times before). Yet here it is, growing. I wonder if this is related to the discovery of newborn glaciers in Scotland?
The headline is a quote by Dr. Judith Curry from a David Rose article in the Sunday Mail: Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7million square kilometres MORE than 2 years ago…despite Al Gore’s prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now.
The speech by former US Vice-President Al Gore was apocalyptic. ‘The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff,’ he said. ‘It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.’
Those comments came in 2007 as Mr Gore accepted the Nobel Peace Prize for his campaigning on climate change.
But seven years after his warning, The Mail on Sunday can reveal that, far from vanishing, the Arctic ice cap has expanded for the second year in succession – with a surge, depending on how you measure it, of between 43 and 63 per cent since…
View original post 399 more words
Yet another inconvenient truth for climate alarmists.
Like watching the number of days that a major hurricane has not made landfall on the United States (now over 3000 days), we can now watch the number of days that Antarctica’s sea ice continues to be above the 30 year baseline. The constant growth is remarkable.
As shown in the plot below, data from University of Illinois Cryosphere Today shows that Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Anomaly has been positive since July 5th, 2011.
View original post 25 more words
Wait. I thought the enviro-left alarmists were screaming at us that the ice was melting and that everyone on the coasts would drown. Mother Nature seems not to have gotten the memo.
There’s an information war on the recent Antarctic sea ice records
Guest essay by Frank Lansner
Today Cryosphere reports 2,112 million km2 more sea ice around Antarctica than normal.
Reality is that we right now have an area matching the size of Greenland of extra sea ice floating around Antarctica. The nightmare for the global warming believers is if the growing ice around Antarctica should be linked to cooling, and so:
View original post 1,275 more words
Call it Nature’s “grapefruit in the face” moment for governments that took global-warming alarmists at their word that polar ice would be vanishing. Now there aren’t enough icebreaker ships to go around:
Another little parable for our times is the story of Sweden’s refusal to lease its most powerful ice-breaker to help the United States in supplying its McMurdo base in Antarctica. The Swedes told Hillary Clinton that they need the Oden at home, after two years of unusually thick winter ice have brought shipping to a halt in the northern Baltic. The Americans have relied on the Oden’s services for five years because, as revealed by the Autonomous Mind blog, they have run down their own ice-breaker fleet, believing that global warming would render it unnecessary.
The Baltic nations, including Sweden, Russia, Finland and Estonia, now realise they need all the ice-breakers they can get, to avoid a repetition of the horror last spring when more than 100 ships were trapped in abnormally severe pack ice at both ends of Russia.
Meanwhile, the BBC – as usual at the peak of the Arctic’s summer melt – prattles on about ships that sail round the top of Russia and Canada, and the ice soon vanishing altogether. In its strange bubble, the BBC seems unaware that ships could do this 70 years ago, before “global warming”, and that the real story is the crisis created by the massive return, for two successive winters, of ice to the Gulf of Finland and the Sea of Okhotsk.
Meanwhile, be sure to read the rest of Christopher Booker’s article; the first part shows how Germany, in a fit of irrational panic over the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, may go dark even faster than has been predicted for de-carbonizing Britain.
(1) Actually, no it’s not. That was dumb, guys.
(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)
It can’t be a good sign when the union representing 7,000 Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents unanimously passes a no-confidence motion against ICE management:
The union that represents rank-and-file field agents at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has unanimously passed a “vote of no confidence” for the agency’s leadership, saying ICE has “abandoned” its core mission of protecting the public to support a political agenda favoring amnesty.
The National Immigration and Customs Enforcement Council of the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents 7,000 ICE agents and employees, voted 259-0 for a resolution saying there was “growing dissatisfaction and concern” over the leadership of Assistant Secretary John Morton, who heads ICE, and Phyllis Coven, assistant director for the agency’s office of detention policy and planning.
The resolution said ICE leadership had “abandoned the agency’s core mission of enforcing U.S. immigration laws and providing for public safety,” instead directing its attention “to campaigning for programs and policies related to amnesty and the creation of a special detention system for foreign nationals that exceeds the care and services provided to most U.S. citizens similarly incarcerated.
“It is the desire of our union … to publicly separate ourselves from the actions of Director Morton and Assistant Director Coven and publicly state that ICE officers and employees do not support Morton or Coven or their misguided and reckless initiatives, which could ultimately put many in America at risk,” the union said.
Be sure to read the whole thing, and check out Power Line for good analysis. Meanwhile I’ll leave you with this: the Executive Branch, starting at the top with the President, is charged with seeing that the laws of the United States are faithfully executed. What does it say when the rank and file of a law-enforcement agency accuse the Executive of not just failing at that duty, but positively refusing to do it?
And no, before anyone asks, I’m not indulging in an impeachment fantasy. It’s a stupid idea for many, many reasons. (For starters, “President Biden??”) But clearly the ICE management targeted by this resolution are following Obama administration policy preferences: they do not want illegal immigration controlled and they do want some sort of amnesty, whether granted by Congress or through (illegal?) administrative fiat. Cynics would say that’s because they assume illegals put on a path to citizenship would be likely future Democratic voters. That’s not impossible, as this is the most politically cynical administration I’ve experienced since Nixon’s.
But the way to stop them is not through self-indulgent cries for impeachment. Instead, we have to take Congress away from the (Social) Democrats. At least the House, and preferably the Senate, too. Then, with the power of the purse and the brakes applied by a divided government, we can throw light on the derelictions of this administration and lay the groundwork for electing a Chief Executive who will see that the laws are faithfully executed, rather than a President who thinks he’s still 12-years old.
(Crossposted at Sister Toldjah)
Poor Al Gore. It’s hard enough being the spiritual leader for thousands of drooling enviro-cultists and the front man for Green Statists worldwide, but do people also have to ruin his narrative and humiliate him with facts?
Inconvenient truth for Al Gore as his North Pole sums don’t add up
There are many kinds of truth. Al Gore was poleaxed by an inconvenient one yesterday.
The former US Vice-President, who became an unlikely figurehead for the green movement after narrating the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, became entangled in a new climate change “spin” row.
Mr Gore, speaking at the Copenhagen climate change summit, stated the latest research showed that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in five years.
In his speech, Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”
However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.
“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”
Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.
Ignore the inconvenient fact that, while 2007 was the minimum year so far for Arctic ice (but we only started measuring around 1979, and it’s growing again), Antarctic sea ice is growing and reaching record highs. This is yet another example of why Al Gore should not be taken seriously: he plays fast and loose with the facts, when he’s not getting them wrong altogether. For him the “truth” of global warming is a given; having to prove it is a chore, so why bother to get facts straight when we already know what needs to be done? Facts serve policy; policy is not derived from facts. We see the same intellectual and ethical inversion at work in the leaked emails and program code from the UEA’s Climatic Research Unit. And now it’s all coming out, thanks to unnamed whistle-blowers and even Mother Nature herself.
No, it isn’t easy being High Priest.
POSTSCRIPT: His Green Holiness seems to be on a roll with the mistakes.
UPDATE: Perhaps the scientist who claims Al got it wrong is himself playing fast and loose? Looks like we have two crooks caught, each pointing the finger at the other.
Global warming alarmists often tell us that the crisis is so great that we may soon see the north polar ice cap vanish. (Natural cycle? Nah…) Try telling that to ships navigating the Northwest Passage, however:
Ice choking Northwest Passage: officials
Despite predictions from a top U.S. polar institute that the Arctic Ocean’s overall ice cover is headed for another “extreme” meltdown by mid-September, the Environment Canada agency monitoring our northern waters says an unusual combination of factors is making navigation more difficult in the Northwest Passage this year after two straight summers of virtually clear sailing.
In both the wider, deep-water northern corridor and the narrower, shallower southern branches of the passage, the Canadian Ice Service says pockets of more extensive winter freezing and concentrations of thicker, older ice at several key “choke points” are complicating ship travel.
LINKS: More at Watt’s Up With That?
UPDATE: Fixed broken link to the article about the Northwest Passage.
Well, according to the Truther community George Bush was secretly behind the 9/11 attacks and really invaded Iraq to steal its oil, so why not this, too?
Graphic images that reveal the devastating impact of global warming in the Arctic have been released by the US military. The photographs, taken by spy satellites over the past decade, confirm that in recent years vast areas in high latitudes have lost their ice cover in summer months.
The pictures, kept secret by Washington during the presidency of George W Bush, were declassified by the White House last week. President Barack Obama is currently trying to galvanise Congress and the American public to take action to halt catastrophic climate change caused by rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Don’t forget, this is coming from a supposedly respectable newspaper. One that apparently couldn’t be bothered to research the historic variation in arctic ice cover that’s been observed over the last couple of centuries, or that the ice cover, even if shrinking in the north, is increasing in Antarctica. Of course, as William Jacobson points out, the whole idea that the Bush Administration was hiding some dire secret is ludicrous, as a simple Google search reveals.
How convenient, too, that this article comes out just as the Obama administration is pushing controversial cap-and-trade legislation to regulate the output of greenhouse gases and prevent global warming – a problem their models can’t even show exists. The Waxman-Markey bill barely passed the House and has run into serious difficulties in the Senate because it’s dawning on the public that this bill will do serious damage to the American economy.
So, what else can Team Obama do but trot out the old “blame Bush” excuse?
Thankfully, fewer and fewer people are buying it, whether from Obama or his shills in the media.