Another excuse for ‘the pause’ – it’s a ‘blip’ from volcanoes, or something

July 20, 2015

“It’s anything –ANYTHING!!– except solar cycles,” pleaded the desperate climate scientist who was beginning to realize he’d been wrong for over 20 years.

Watts Up With That?

From the University of Edinburgh:

Warming slow-down not the end of climate change, study shows

A slow-down in global warming is not a sign that climate change is ending, but a natural blip in an otherwise long-term upwards trend, research shows.

In a detailed study of more than 200 years’ worth of temperature data, results backed previous findings that short-term pauses in climate change are simply the result of natural variation.

The findings support the likelihood that a current hiatus in the world’s year-on-year temperature increases – which have stalled since 1998 – is temporary.

Scientists from the University of Edinburgh analysed real-world historic climate records from 1782 to 2000, comparing them with computerised climate models for the same timescale.

They were able to separate the influence on climate trends of man-made warming – such as from greenhouse gas emissions – and of natural influences in temperature – such as…

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Tides, Earthquakes, and Volcanoes

February 7, 2015

Interesting rebuttal to the previous post about the theory that tidal forces affect underwater earthquake eruptions.

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Inspired by the paper by the charmingly-named Anna Maya Tolstoy discussed here on WUWT, I decided to see if tidal forces affect the timing of earthquakes and volcanoes. Dr. Tolstoy’s hypothesis is that tidal forces affect the timing of the subterranean eruptions … but she has only nine “events” (either eruptions or lava flows) to test her theory. On that thread I said I thought her hypothesis was wrong, but I hadn’t looked at the data.

I figured that IF, and it’s a big if, tidal forces are affecting volcanoes, they’d also affect earthquakes. So I decided to start by seeing if there is a relationship between the tidal forces and earthquakes by looking at as many earthquakes as I could find.

For the calculation of the tidal forces, I started by going to the marvelous JPL Horizons ephemeris. I set the variables as…

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Inconvenient study: Seafloor volcano pulses may alter climate – models may be wrong

February 5, 2015

This is a fascinating article and yet another potential blow to climate-alarmist fantasies.

Watts Up With That?

New data show strikingly regular patterns, from weeks to eons

seafloor-volcanoes This topographic map of Earth’s ocean floor in the Atlantic ocean reveals thousands of sub-oceanic volcanoes along the mid-Atlantic ridge. Source: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6205/32.summary

From The Earth Institute at Columbia University:

Vast ranges of volcanoes hidden under the oceans are presumed by scientists to be the gentle giants of the planet, oozing lava at slow, steady rates along mid-ocean ridges. But a new study shows that they flare up on strikingly regular cycles, ranging from two weeks to 100,000 years–and, that they erupt almost exclusively during the first six months of each year. The pulses–apparently tied to short- and long-term changes in earth’s orbit, and to sea levels–may help trigger natural climate swings. Scientists have already speculated that volcanic cycles on land emitting large amounts of carbon dioxide might influence climate; but up to now there was no evidence from submarine volcanoes.

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Claim: ‘the pause’ is caused by small volcanic eruptions

November 19, 2014

Now that the “warmth is hiding in the deep ocean” explanation has been debunked, climate alarmists are grasping at other straws to something to explain the lack of global warming for the past almost-20 years. Anything other than “a natural cycle.” I’m not saying this reason is impossible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Watts Up With That?

Small volcanic eruptions could be slowing global warming

From the AGU: WASHINGTON, DC— Small volcanic eruptions might eject more of an atmosphere-cooling gas into Earth’s upper atmosphere than previously thought, potentially contributing to the recent slowdown in global warming, according to a new study.

bg volcanoScientists have long known that volcanoes can cool the atmosphere, mainly by means of sulfur dioxide gas that eruptions expel. Droplets of sulfuric acid that form when the gas combines with oxygen in the upper atmosphere can remain for many months, reflecting sunlight away from Earth and lowering temperatures. However, previous research had suggested that relatively minor eruptions—those in the lower half of a scale used to rate volcano “explosivity”—do not contribute much to this cooling phenomenon.

Now, new ground-, air- and satellite measurements show that small volcanic eruptions that occurred between 2000 and 2013 have deflected almost double the amount of solar radiation previously estimated…

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New paper finds West Antarctic glacier likely melting from geothermal heat below

October 12, 2014

This is going to cause the Sad Trombone to play for the Global Warming Cult.

Watts Up With That?

Via the Hockey Schtick – A paper published today in Earth and Planetary Science Letters finds evidence that one of the largest glaciers in West Antarctica, the Thwaites Glacier, is primarily melting from below due to geothermal heat flux from volcanoes located along the West Antarctic Volcanic Rift System, i.e. not due to man-made CO2.

antarctic-volcano[1]Image from Jo Nova

CAGW proponents have alleged that West Antarctic glaciers such as such as the Thwaites Glacier and the neighboring Pine Island Glacier are rapidly melting due to man-made greenhouse gases and/or ocean heating, despite observations showing the air temperature in the Antarctic hasn’t risen since 1979, Antarctic sea surface temperatures have fallen since 2006, and ARGO ocean heat content of the Southern Ocean shows no increase at any level of the top 2000 meters since the system was put in place in 2004. The authors find the neighboring Pine Island Glacier also overlies the same volcanic rift…

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About that melting Antarctic ice sheet

May 29, 2014

volcano

One word: volcanoes.

Let me repeat that: volcanoes.


Awesome

April 19, 2010

It’s an overused word, but I think it’s applicable here in its most neutral sense of inspiring awe: photos from the volcanic eruption in Iceland.


Global warming and volcanoes: game, set, match

April 16, 2010

Replying at Watt’s Up With That? to an article at the Scientific American web site claiming that the disappearance of glaciers due to global warming would lead to an increase in volcanic eruptions, geologist Steven Goddard provides a rebuttal and declares that theory to be bovine excrement:

The geothermal gradient of the earth is typically about 40°C per km, so a 0.5°C change in temperature is equivalent to a depth change of about 20 metres.  Near mid-ocean ridges this gradient is steeper, so the equivalent depth change in Iceland would be less than 20 metres.  Is it credible that a 0.5°C decrease in the melting point could stimulate excess volcanic activity?  Short answer – no. Volcanic activity is caused by magma rising to the surface, not glaciers melting.  However, the loss of the glaciers would reduce the amount of steam and ash generated.  Ash is formed when magma is cooled and fractured by steam.  So the loss of the glaciers would reduce the size of the steam/ash cloud and make the Iceland volcanoes behave more like Hawaii volcanoes.

In short, the loss of all ice in Iceland would make the volcanoes less destructive.

Read the whole thing for a good lesson in igneous petrology and volcanology.

UPDATE: More from Goddard, who explains that it’s not that climate change causes volcanoes, it’s that volcanoes can cause climate change.


Global warming, the disaster movie?

April 16, 2010

Why not? In addition to baking the Earth (except it’s getting cooler), raising the seas (except they’re not), and killing the polar bears (except they’re flourishing), global warming also causes volcanoes to erupt:

A thaw of Iceland’s ice caps in coming decades caused by climate change may trigger more volcanic eruptions by removing a vast weight and freeing magma from deep below ground, scientists said on Friday.

They said there was no sign that the current eruption from below the Eyjafjallajokull glacier that has paralysed flights over northern Europe was linked to global warming. The glacier is too small and light to affect local geology.

“Our work suggests that eventually there will be either somewhat larger eruptions or more frequent eruptions in Iceland in coming decades,” said Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a vulcanologist at the University of Iceland.

“Global warming melts ice and this can influence magmatic systems,” he told Reuters. The end of the Ice Age 10,000 years ago coincided with a surge in volcanic activity in Iceland, apparently because huge ice caps thinned and the land rose.

We believe the reduction of ice has not been important in triggering this latest eruption,” he said of Eyjafjallajokull. “The eruption is happening under a relatively small ice cap.”

In other words:

“Global warming isn’t in play here, but we’re taking this opportunity to scare you into agreeing to all the harebrained, economy-killing measures the UN, the IPCC, and delusional national governments can think up to deal with a problem that does not exist. Thank you.”

As a commenter at Watts Up With That? pointed out, if the magma chamber is so close to the surface as to be affected by a glacier, then it’s already itself melting the glacier, no CO2 needed.

Next thing you know, global warming will be blamed for stock-market crashes.

RELATED: In fact, undersea volcanoes may explain the calving of huge glaciers in the Antarctic peninsula, while the rest of the Antarctic ice sheet is expanding. It’s also a possible reason for the receding Arctic ice, though that’s expanded again in recent years. Again, no AGW bugbear required.

LINKS: More from the ever-restrained and temperate James Delingpole.